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Isle spot in president’s
race looks blue
However, Hawaii GOP officials
point to Bush's improved numbers
in recent voter surveys
With no recent public polls on the presidential race in Hawaii, gauging who's ahead depends largely on who you ask.
Democrats point to the most recent poll in August showing Sen. John Kerry with a slight edge and say they're confident, but not overconfident, that Hawaii will remain in their column. Republicans point to that same poll that showed President Bush ahead of his 2000 numbers and say Hawaii seems ready to go to the GOP for the first time in 20 years.
One political analyst has all the evidence he needs to predict Hawaii for Kerry on Nov. 2.
"I think if it really were very, very close you would see both candidates coming out here," said Neal Milner, a University of Hawaii political science professor. "The fact that the candidates aren't campaigning here means each side still sees this as a Democratic win."
Despite Gov. Linda Lingle's victory in 2002 as the state's first Republican governor in 40 years, Hawaii isn't ready yet to become a red state, said Milner, who's been observing Hawaii politics for more than 30 years.
Hawaii voters have backed Republican presidents only twice since statehood in 1959, and never on their first try. Richard Nixon won over George McGovern in 1972, and Ronald Reagan beat Walter Mondale in 1984.
A national analysis by The Associated Press declares Hawaii's four electoral votes as "solid Kerry."
But the last published poll in Hawaii was close enough to give Republicans hope.
The Aug. 9 Star-Bulletin/KITV poll of 798 registered voters statewide showed Kerry with a 48-41 lead over Bush, with 11 percent undecided and a 4 percentage point margin of error. Bush had 37 percent of the Hawaii vote in 2000, when Al Gore carried the state with 56 percent.
The presidential race has largely fallen below the radar in Hawaii, with neither candidate coming to campaign here and most local politicians focusing on their own races.
Hawaii Republican Party Chairman Brennon Morioka said the GOP will be "stepping things up" in the next two weeks by giving the Bush-Cheney campaign more of a presence in local rallies, sign-waving efforts and other events.
Bush also has been able to count on Lingle -- chairwoman of the campaign in Hawaii -- to be his most vocal supporter in the islands.
"I think the president has a good chance of winning and it would be good for our state if he did," Lingle said last week before leaving for the mainland to stump for the Bush-Cheney campaign in several key states.
"I think it would be a big advantage to us if he got re-elected," she added. "It gives you more strength when you go up to talk about issues because he would know, and I would know, that he won in Hawaii."
Democrats aren't counting anything as a sure thing.
"I think it's important for us to keep an eye on the ball," said Jadine Nielsen, state director of the Democratic National Committee in Hawaii. "We don't take this state for granted. We're working hard for every vote."
The state party's most recent efforts to sway the vote in Kerry's favor include loaning out copies of Michael Moore's documentary "Fahrenheit 9/11" to interested groups and individuals.
With 18 donated copies of the DVD, some groups have even organized large viewing parties at school cafeterias and other public venues, said party spokeswoman Donalyn Dela Cruz.
The party also has the voices of the state's four members of Congress -- all Democrats -- campaigning for the Kerry-Edwards ticket at their rallies and events.
While neither candidate has campaigned in Hawaii this year, Bush visited the islands last October, stopping in Honolulu for a day on his way back to Washington, D.C., from a six-nation tour of Asia.
Milner said he doesn't expect much in either campaign to change in the weeks before Nov. 2.
"If it hasn't picked up by now ... something would have to change pretty fundamentally for that to change," he said.
