A new forecast says Hawaii will continue to suffer from the national and global economic downturn at least through this year.

State Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism Director Ted Liu says Hawaii's economy will recover gradually. He says federal stimulus money flowing into the state over the next few months will provide a boost.

The department's quarterly report today predicts that the state's real gross domestic product will fall 1.6 percent this year.

Total visitor arrivals are expected to fall 5.9 percent, the same amount as the state's previous forecast in February.

But visitor spending is projected to dip 7.9 percent, a significantly larger decline than the 1.9 percent drop in the previous forecast.