No need brag, brah.

Hawaii's financial picture is expected to see growth in this new year as the economy stabilizes, more tourists take vacations here and more jobs are created, especially in hot industries like alternative energy.

Still, by all accounts, 2010 is going to be lackluster.

Lingering weakness in the U.S. and Japanese economies and the state's dismal budget picture have local economists saying recovery will be modest. Bright spots on the horizon such as increased real estate sales and the creation of more private-sector jobs could be overshadowed by rising oil prices, continued government job losses and increasing housing short sales and foreclosures. And when residents reach for their wallets, most will find their real personal income has shrunk.

Economy stabilizing: The local economy will begin to improve this year, but most households won't feel the change.

The good news is that visitor arrivals are expected to grow as recession conditions abate on the mainland and the global economy improves. Real estate watchers also have said that the worst might be over and that home values will recover sometime before 2014. But jobs are still going to be hard to find, and income losses will continue.

A trend to watch in 2010 will be whether the state's unemployment rate gets worse. The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization has said it expects the rate to average 7.3 percent this year before falling to 6.7 percent in 2011. However, state efforts to balance the budget and the expected more-than-tenfold surge in average unemployment compensation taxes for employers could result in greater jobless rates.

While steep price discounting and economic recovery have returned enough U.S. and Japanese visitors to improve overall arrivals, visitor spending is still down. Industry watchers have said it could be another five years before average room rates and revenue return to levels seen during the previous peak. Hotel revenues might continue to slump; however, hotel occupancy is expected to continue improving. More guests at hotels means more hours for visitor industry workers, which circulates dollars into all facets of the economy.

The rosier visitor outlook combined with strong price drops in year-over-year housing costs, historic interest rate lows and government incentives could boost real estate sales. Still, expected government-related layoffs, private cutbacks and another wave of subprime loan resets could cause short sales and foreclosures to increase.

All eyes on oil: Oil prices, which affect local businesses, residents, the visitor industry and airlines, will play an important role in the health of the economy.

Consumers, who saw regular gasoline prices rise to a record $4.51 per gallon in July 2008, got some respite in the later half of 2008 and in 2009. At this time a year ago, regular gas prices had fallen to an average of $2.32 per gallon, but they have moved up to $3.31.

If oil prices, which have been hovering near $80 a barrel, move up, it will strain consumer and airline budgets. Increased shipping and transportation costs would increase expenses for businesses, and higher gas prices could contribute to household debt.

More increases also could cause airlines to pull out of Hawaii or limit schedules and routes, which is bad news for a primarily fly-to destination. It might mean a rise in airfares—a move that is sure to make some visitors rethink their travel plans.

Getting energized: Investments in alternative energy are expected to keep going strong as the state reduces its dependence on fossil fuel and looks for other ways to improve the environment.

For starters, Hawaii's “;Solar Roofs”; law goes into effect today, requiring all new homes in the state to be built with solar water heaters. Hawaii is the first state in the nation to pass such a law.

Solar photovoltaic systems, meanwhile, are becoming more popular, among both commercial businesses and homeowners, due to lower prices and continued tax credits.

The state is working, slowly but surely, toward its goal of generating 70 percent of its energy from renewable resources by 2030.

Among the renewable energy projects that either have been completed or are in the pipeline:

» Hawaiian Electric Co.'s 110-megawatt biofuel plant at Campbell Industrial Park, which has been completed.

» La Ola, a 1.2-megawatt photovoltaic solar energy farm with a battery backup system built by Castle & Cooke to supply electricity to Maui Electric Co. on Lanai.

» Wind farms planned for Kahuku on Oahu as well as on Maui, where Kaheawa is expanding.

» The Honolulu Seawater Air Conditioning project, which published its final environmental impact statement this year.

The U.S. Department of Energy, meanwhile, pumped $48 million of federal stimulus money into two bio-refinery projects in Hawaii.