LOOKING hard for a sliver of good news, a report finds that Oahu's retail market has weathered the economic dive of 2008 better than other industries as new stores opened and vacancies at existing properties held steady.

Next year, however, will be a different story.

Predictions of more store closings, shelved projects and declining sales would not be surprising to anyone — not to consumers who are holding on tight to their cash or to businesses that have seen fewer customers in their aisles.

For now, at least, the report by Colliers Monroe Friedlander, a commercial real estate management group, presents a bright note in the gloomy retail picture.

The report points to a low vacancy rate of 3.2 percent in Oahu retail spaces and a 3.9 percent uptick in rental rates from last year. There ends the brightness.

In the last few months, retail failures have been the norm in Hawaii and elsewhere as stores large and small have been forced to shutter their doors. KB Toys was added to the list of national chains filing for bankruptcy, following Circuit City, Steve & Barry's and The Sharper Image.

KB's spaces at two large malls in Honolulu and two others on the neighbor islands will be counted among the vacancies that the report predicts will reach 6 percent and the stagnant rental rates forecast for 2009.

Across the nation, retail sales fell 1.8 percent from October to November — the fifth straight month this year — and a whopping 7.4 percent from November 2007, according to the Commerce Department. It was a record stretch of weakness on the government's retail sales books.

Meanwhile, fears of inflation have been replaced by the prospect of deflation as producer prices fell and pessimistic businesses made the biggest inventory cuts since August 2003.

Still, the retail industry can take comfort in a modest 2 percent increase in sales at department stores, an 0.2 percent rise at home furnishing outlets and an bump in purchases of sporting goods, books and electronics from October.

Consumer confidence, a key to spending patterns, also improved in early December, according to a University of Michigan and Reuters survey. But the increase came after a 28-year low in November and was largely attributed to the drop in gasoline prices and might not translate in the longer term.

Hawaii's tourism downturn has fewer visitors spending at resorts shops, and retailers expect sales volumes there to drop between 10 and 30 percent. Christmas sales, even as stores push discounts, are likely to decline from 6 to 20 percent, merchants say.

All in all, our holiday cheer isn't quite as bright as usual.