A below-normal hurricane forecast for the June 1-Nov. 30 season doesn't mean Hawaii won't have some damaging weather, warns the Central Pacific Hurricane Center director.

“;It doesn't take a strong hurricane to cause damage with flooding,”; Jim Weyman said yesterday, recalling Hurricane Felicia last August.

After threatening the Big Island, Felicia fizzled, with remnants sweeping across the islands with widespread rain. Kauai and Oahu had 14 inches and Oahu had flash flooding, he said.

Weyman said there is a 70 percent chance this year of a below-normal Central Pacific hurricane season, with two or three tropical cyclones; a 25 percent chance of a normal season with four or five events; and a 5 percent chance of six or more systems.

An average season has four or five tropical cyclones, including tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.

  Forecast shows potential 2-3 storms in Pacific

 

Forecasters are predicting a QUIET Central Pacific hurricane season, which runs from June through November.

 

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“;We give a seasonal forecast, but we can never predict where any one of those systems will go,”; said Weyman, also meteorologist-in-charge of the National Weather Service's Honolulu Forecast Office. “;We all know it only takes that one hitting Hawaii and causing tremendous devastation.”;

“;Prepare, Watch and Act”; is the hurricane center's message, he said, asking residents to make family emergency plans, monitor conditions and take action if necessary.

Gov. Linda Lingle joined Weyman in encouraging residents to protect themselves and their families with emergency preparations.

“;In a hurricane of any magnitude, government is not able to get to everyone right away,”; she emphasized. “;We don't have the resources.”;

She said the Civil Defense Agency and partners will focus first on people most in need, so residents must take responsibility to protect their families and the community.

She issued a proclamation declaring May 24- 30 as Hurricane Preparedness Week, saying, “;You can save your family's life by taking one day to prepare for a hurricane.”;

Weyman said 170 tropical storms, depressions and hurricanes have occurred since 1971, including 24 hurricanes that were Category 3 or higher. Even though Hawaii was hit by two devastating hurricanes—Iniki in 1992 and Iwa in 1982—“;we've been pretty lucky,”; he said. Iniki was the last hurricane to touch down in the state.

An El Nino developed last June, with warm sea-surface waters that portend stronger storms, but that changed in April and this month to neutral conditions. Some models forecast a possible La Nina with neutral or cooler ocean temperatures near the equator, he said.

Seven tropical cyclones occurred last year, with six from July 31 to Aug. 30, Weyman said. Felicia was the season's first major hurricane on Aug. 5.

In October, Category 3 Hurricane Neki threatened the Papahanaumokuakea National Monument in the Northwest Hawaiian Islands and people doing conservation work on Laysan Island and French Frigate Shoals.

Luckily, Neki's path shifted from Laysan to French Frigate Shoals, because there was no way to get seven people off the island immediately, said Barry Stieglitz of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.