All over town there are chess matches under way plotting the different alternative endings for Hawaii's special congressional election.

With less than 20 days of voting left in the mail-in ballot election, political insiders are trying to figure out who will win, what it means and the effect for the general election this fall.

One local political consultant, not working on the congressional campaign who requested anonymity, said: “;Clearly there is a whiff of change in the air and Djou is a symbol of the most change.”;

According to several recent polls, Charles Djou, the Republican city councilman, maintains a slight lead over Ed Case, the Democratic former representative. Colleen Hanabusa, state Senate president and the other major Democrat in the race, appears to be trailing in all polls.

Hanabusa appears to be a spoiler, because even with the “;undecided”; added to her column she could not win, but if her votes were added to Case, he would beat Djou.

“;I think she has blown it,”; said another local Democratic consultant not working on the congressional race, noting that Hanabusa's negative ads attacking Case are likely to backfire.

Negative ads don't work in Hawaii, the consultant said, saying it is the second major misstep for Hanabusa's campaign. The first was running ads touting Hanabusa and the Legislature taking a 5 percent pay cut after accepting a 36 percent raise. The consultant claims the ads ran over the protests of local political advisors.

Hawaii voters are not angry like the Tea Party conservatives on the mainland, says Neal Milner, a University of Hawaii political scientist, who does not mind being on the record.

“;Djou comes off as a staunch but polite and friendly conservative who is not angry,”; says Milner.

As for Case, Milner and other observers say he must continue to tell anyone who will listen that Hanabusa has no chance and a vote for him will keep the GOP from scoring a big victory in Hawaii.

“;This will be the time for liberal Democrats and devotees of Dan Inouye and Dan Akaka to swallow hard,”; a consultant said.

The consultant raises an interesting question of what mainstream Inouye-Democrats should do in a general election.

Do they actually support Case, suffer a GOP victory or do they find another candidate?

“;There is only one person that could do it,”; the consultant said, referring to Mayor Mufi Hannemann.

While that is mostly improbable, the depth of Inouye's dislike for Case makes it something less than impossible.