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POSTED: Friday, April 09, 2010

Economically speaking, things are looking up for Honolulu. It ranks sixth in the country where the economy is growing faster than before the recession based on the change in gross metropolitan product (the value of the goods and services produced in a metropolitan area), according to the Washington, D.C.-based Brookings Institution.

Honolulu was rated among the 100 largest metropolitan areas and the nation as a whole in Brookings' fourth-quarter MetroMonitor report, which measures employment, output and housing conditions.

There has been a “;broad and consistent pattern across economic statistics that Hawaii didn't take as hard a hit (as the mainland) and is looking at reasonable recovery prospects,”; said economist Paul Brewbaker, founder of Kailua-based TZ Economics.

Some financial reports will continue to focus on business failures, foreclosures and personal bankruptcies, but those are “;lagging indicators,”; he said.

For the fourth quarter of 2009, Honolulu ranked 46th in employment change compared with the peak in the third quarter of 2007, and the city's 5.3 percent unemployment rate is far below the national 9.7 percent rate.

Business cycles are “;so predictable,”; and so “;guys that were hoping for a double-dip recession, seeing their fantasies dashed, are clinging like rats to ... lagging indicators that will continue to tell you bad news long after the speculators and opportunistic investors have come into the market and bought up everything for cheap,”; Brewbaker said.

 

ON THE REBOUND

The top 10 performing metro areas in gross metropolitan product growth, according to the Brookings Institution. The organization measured changes in the total value of goods and services produced from each metro area's peak GMP quarter to the most recent quarter, to measure recovery from the recession's full impact.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

1. Washington, D.C., Arlington-Alexandria, Va., Maryland, W.Va.	N/A*
2. Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, Texas	4.0%
3. Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C.	2.9%
4. Baltimore-Towson, Md.	2.3%
5. San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas	2.3%
6. Honolulu	2.0%
7. Albuquerque, N.M.	1.8%
8. Ogden-Clearfield, Utah	1.8%
9. Raleigh-Cary, N.C.	1.6%
10. McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas	1.5%

* A peak could not be defined due to continuous GMP growth since 2004.

Source: Moody's Economy.com via the Brookings Institution