More signs of stability in Hawaii's economy and improved outlooks for the U.S. and Japan have prompted the state to slightly revise upward its recovery projections for this year.

Yet the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism cautioned in its first-quarter report yesterday that the basic projection of a slow and gradual recovery has not changed.

While visitor arrivals, which fell 4.5 percent in 2009, are still expected to rise 2 percent this year, in line with its previous forecast, the department raised its projections for visitor spending and visitor days.

“;I think it's a reaffirmation that everything is slowly getting better,”; said Deputy Director Pearl Imada Iboshi. “;When you think of tax revenue, expenditures matter more than the number of visitors.”;

Spending is now seen rising 2.3 percent, up from no growth in the agency's last forecast in mid-November, and visitor days are projected to increase 2.1 percent in 2010 compared with the 0.7 percent increase in the previous forecast.

The department said it expects to see the beginning of recovery in some sectors in this year with modest growth in 2011.

“;The gradual recovery should continue into 2013, assuming national and international economic conditions continue to improve,”; the department said.

Slightly better-than-expected economic data for the U.S. in recent months resulted in a more optimistic forecast, the agency said.

The department said it was encouraged by forecasts that call for the real, or inflation-adjusted, gross domestic product in the U.S. to increase 3 percent this year and 3.1 percent in 2011, while Japan, the top international tourist market for Hawaii, is projecting real growth domestic product growth of 1.6 percent in 2010 and 1.5 percent in 2011.

The state agency now expects Hawaii's real GDP to be 0.9 percent this year, slightly higher than the 0.8 percent previously forecast, due to marginally higher inflation. The Honolulu consumer price index, which measures inflation, is expected to rise 1.7 percent this year, slightly higher than the 1.5 percent increase expected in the previous forecast.

In 2009 the Honolulu CPI was up 0.5 percent from the previous year.

Total wage and salary jobs are expected to fall 0.9 percent this year, the same as previously projected.