Single-family home sales rose nearly 33 percent in January while condominium sales climbed 43 percent compared with a year earlier, according to the Honolulu Board of Realtors.

Home prices were up nearly 11 percent to a median price of $597,500, while condo costs dipped by 2 percent to a median of $299,000.

“;We will see a positive trend for the first quarter of 2010,”; said Chason Ishii, president of Coldwell Banker Pacific Properties.

January sales reflect deals that entered escrow in November and December. They also reflect an absence of the uncertainty that existed in January 2009 with “;the fear factor of not knowing where the economy would take us,”; said Ishii.

“;Major factors”; spurring sales include low interest rates, the first-time homebuyer tax credit and its extension, which expanded the benefit to those trading up to homes to $2 million from $1 million.

Many first-time homebuyers are buying condominiums and townhomes, while among those trading up, 19 properties in the $1 million-to-$2 million price range were sold last month, compared with eight in January 2009, Ishii said.

There are now 40 $1 million-to-$2 million properties in escrow, about twice the number last year at this time, said Ishii.

Now is the time to sell for anyone who has been thinking about it, he said.

Demand is such that 100 groups attended a recent open house in Manoa, and seven offers were made, “;meaning six people were disappointed.”;

Buyers and sellers are “;starting to come out to play,”; said Paul Brewbaker, principal of TZ Economics and consultant for the Board of Realtors.

While the raw numbers are positive, Brewbaker encourages “;cautious enthusiasm.”;

“;A year ago was quite a scary moment ... the worst moment since maybe the fall of 1929,”; he said, noting a year ago there were no federal stimuli to boost sales.

As for pricing, however, Brewbaker is “;fairly optimistic.”;

“;I think we should genuinely be surprised and, in fact, reassured because a year ago the question was, How far down will prices go?”;

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the January median price translates “;into a really robust figure,”; Brewbaker said.

But he is wary of irrational exuberance because the economy has not yet recovered.

The September 2008 collapse of global financial services firm Lehman Bros. “;created a vortex into which the entire global economy was drawn,”; reflecting “;the nature of the vulnerability that persists,”; he said.

Homebuyer tax credits and low interest rates are akin to training wheels on a bicycle, and once removed, Brewbaker said, the question will be, “;Has the housing market and has the economy remembered how to ride the bike?”;

Brewbaker said he believes 2010 will not have “;any particularly strong breaks one way or the other on the value side, but it's likely that volumes will steadily recover.”;

On an even more optimistic note, Brewbaker added, “;I actually think we're at the moment that we pass through in each economic cycle. This could be the first of a 10-year-long period of increasing home sales—until the next wacky thing out of the blue knocks us down.”;

NEIGHBORHOOD WATCH

Oahu single-family home and condominium sales data for December by neighborhood with the percentage change from last year:

SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES

CONDOMINIUMS

Source: Honolulu Board of Realtors Star-Bulletin