StarBulletin.com

Case holds lead over Hanabusa and Djou


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POSTED: Tuesday, January 19, 2010

The two Democrats vying to replace Neil Abercrombie in Congress hold a sizable lead over their lone Republican challenger in a poll commissioned by the Star-Bulletin and KITV.

Regardless of the outcome of any special election to fill Abercrombie's seat, 52 percent of likely voters in the 1st Congressional District say they would pick former U.S. Rep. Ed Case, with 21 percent for City Councilman Charles Djou and 27 percent undecided.

State Sen. Colleen Hanabusa, the other Democrat in the race, is favored over Djou by a margin of 43 percent to 36 percent, with 21 percent undecided.

The telephone poll of 403 registered Hawaii voters in the 1st Congressional District, representing urban Honolulu, was conducted Jan. 8 to last Tuesday by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research of Washington, D.C. It has a margin of error of 5 percentage points.

In a smaller sample of 272 likely voters in a Democratic primary election, 48 percent say they would vote for Case, 33 percent for Hanabusa and 19 percent are undecided. The margin of error for the smaller sample size is 6.1 percentage points.

“;I think what these numbers show is that not only is my base strong in the overall electorate, but it is definitely strong within the Democratic Party itself,”; Case said.

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“;We've seen a great influx of people that want to help in our campaign and don't like the control politics structure of Hawaii and do want to change that,”; he added. “;Certainly my opponent is signed in to the old ways, and that's not what people want, and I think that's sparked a tremendous renewed interest in our campaign.”;

Hanabusa said she was confident that as the campaign unfolds, Democrats will flock to her side. She already has received the endorsement of Hawaii's most senior elected Democrats, U.S. Sens. Daniel Inouye and Daniel Akaka.

“;I think Ed and Charles are more alike than I am from either of them,”; she said. “;We feel that when you really start to campaign on the issues that people will probably recognize me as the more Democratic candidate.”;

Djou also remained confident.

“;It's a good start for me,”; he said. “;I think I'm also excited by the fact that I'm in the ballgame.

“;Ed Case and Colleen Hanabusa both have run for Congress multiple times before. I have not. They spent significantly more money than I have in advertising statewide. I have not. So for me it's a great start.”;

In the Democratic primary poll, Case's support came mainly from voters between ages 50 and 64. In that demographic, 51 percent favored Case, compared with 19 percent for Hanabusa and 30 percent undecided.

While male voters favored Case, 40 percent to 33 percent, female voters also threw their support behind him, 55 percent to 32 percent.

Abercrombie plans to resign from the U.S. House on Feb. 28 to concentrate on a run at the governorship. His resignation would trigger a winner-take-all special election open to any candidate regardless of party affiliation.

The winner of the special election would likely have an inside track in retaining the seat in the September primary and November general elections.