Oahu voters appear ready to return Ed Case to Congress, according to a poll commissioned by the Star-Bulletin and KITV.

If a special election were held today to fill the 1st Congressional District seat being vacated by U.S. Rep. Neil Abercrombie, 37 percent of voters in the district say they would vote for Case, compared to 25 percent for his Democratic rival, state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa, and 17 percent for City Councilman Charles Djou, the only Republican seeking the office.

Twenty-one percent were undecided, according to the poll conducted Jan. 8-12 by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research of Washington, D.C.

The telephone poll of 403 registered Hawaii voters in the 1st Congressional District, representing urban Honolulu, has a margin of error of 5 percentage points.

“;I think voters value my seniority and experience in D.C.—my focus on the economy, my problem-solving approach, my independence, political thought and action,”; Case said yesterday.

Case previously served in the House from 2002 until 2006, when he unsuccessfully challenged U.S. Sen. Dan Akaka for his seat.

Case has been running campaign ads since last month, when Abercrombie announced he would resign his seat in the U.S. House to concentrate on a run for Hawaii governor. His last day is scheduled to be Feb. 28.

Although Case and Hanabusa were expected to face off in this September's Democratic primary, Abercrombie's resignation triggers a special election open to all candidates regardless of party affiliation. The special election winner would have an inside track on retaining the seat in the primary and general elections.

Hanabusa said she was encouraged by the numbers, noting that her campaign has not yet ramped up.

“;We think that the showing is very positive, to be at this point, without any—any—media campaign and our grass-roots campaign not kicked off at the time that the poll was going,”; Hanabusa said. “;We're very pleased and think that these are very good results.”;

Hanabusa opened her campaign headquarters last week with much fanfare, including speeches of support—and harsh words for Case—from U.S. Sens. Dan Inouye and Akaka.

Despite trailing both Democrats, Djou remained confident.

“;I think the single most important number in this poll is the undecided number, and I think that the race is still fluid,”; he said. “;I think as this campaign progresses, and as the voters get to know each of us as candidates better, I'm confident that my message will be the one that prevails in the last poll.

“;It's not the first poll that matters, it's the last poll that counts.”;

The poll also asked voters whether they had favorable or unfavorable opinions of the candidates, with Case rating highest at 42 percent, followed by Djou at 37 percent and Hanabusa at 33 percent.

Hanabusa had the highest unfavorable rating, 27 percent, compared to 18 percent for each of her opponents.

“;I think we really need to start the whole campaign effort,”; Hanabusa said.

“;We really don't have the campaign, technically, up and running in terms of the media.

“;When the media starts to hit, it has been my experience from before, that as people get to see you and people get to understand what you stand for and who you are, that people get affected,”; Hanabusa said.

Case's strong support among age groups was from voters ages 50 to 64, who favored him by 47 percent, compared to 18 percent for Hanabusa and 14 percent for Djou.

“;It shows that Case has got a pretty good reservoir of support,”; said University of Hawaii political scientist Neal Milner.

But Milner also echoed what many GOP strategists believe—that a special election in which Case and Hanabusa spar with each other could leave an opening for Djou.

“;If Djou is able to maintain a kind of solid base of support and get the voters out—he only needs a plurality—then he might actually have a shot.

“;Even though right now, numbers-wise, he's considerably behind, I think we still can see it as a three-way race,”; Milner said.

TOMORROW: Race for governor