Perhaps in the belief that the economy cannot get any worse than it has been, Americans are optimistic about the year ahead. That optimism, while a wish more than fact-based analysis, extends into the business sector and could be instrumental in the recovery of the economy, including Hawaii's tourism engine.

The state Council on Revenues predicted last month that state tax dollars for the 2010 fiscal year would be 2.5 percent below a year ago, not 1.5 percent down, as it predicted three months earlier. The council figures that revenue growth will not occur until the 2011 fiscal year.

Nationally, people are not so gloomy. An Associated Press-GfK poll last month showed that 72 percent of Americans say they're optimistic about what 2010 will bring for the country and 80 percent are optimistic for what the year will bring to their families. (See story in today's Insight.)

They may be seeing persuasive signs of recovery, inconclusive as they might be. For example, the U.S. Labor Department reported Thursday that new claims for unemployment insurance fell by 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 432,000, the lowest in five months. The national unemployment rate dropped in November to 10 percent from 10.2 percent a month earlier, while Hawaii's jobless rate fell to 7 percent from 7.3 percent in October.

Pessimists may point to the fact that the continuing claims for jobless relief, based on state figures, do not include those who have run out of jobless benefits from states and are receiving extended benefits paid by the federal government.

The sanguine spirit extends to Wall Street, ending 2009 with a spectacular rally. The Dow Jones industrial average finished the year about where it was 10 years ago.

Hawaii's tourism industry expects increased hotel occupancy in the year ahead. Although the number of visitors in November fell by 1.4 percent from the same month in 2008, the Hawaii Tourism Authority's Mike McCartney says the industry is gaining market share against competitors for the North American market.

The staggering visitor industry nationally envisions a solid rebound. A recent survey by the United States Tour Operators Association found that 75 percent of its members predict an 18 percent increase in international packaged travel in 2010, and more than half expected the same growth in domestic tour packages. Only 7 percent expect a decline this year.

The downside is that much of any growth will rely on packages made cheap because of the recession.

Questionable as the indicators might be, many if not most people who survived the economic catastrophe envision a more stable economy ahead. As the German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche put it, “;That which does not kill us makes us stronger.”;