High-flying Hyman, Caris see market turning flat
POSTED: Sunday, July 12, 2009
Local stock experts don't expect much from the market for the second half of 2009.
But regardless of what happens, two of the four participants in the Star-Bulletin's eighth annual stock-picking contest already have enjoyed a banner campaign if they can hold on to all or most of their gains.
Barry Hyman, vice president-managing team for the Maui branch of FIM Group Ltd., saw the five picks in his hypothetical $20,000 portfolio soar 75.9 percent during the first six months while Norm Caris, managing director-institutional sales for Caris and Co., produced a 66.5 percent return.
Neither expects the good times to continue.
“;There is a time to be a bull, a time to be a bear, and a time to go fishing. This is a time to go fishing,”; Caris said. “;The stock market will likely be flat to down 5 percent from current levels in the second half. Underlying economic fundamentals are still very poor.”;
Caris took a gamble on the struggling auto industry with Ford and was rewarded with a 165.1 percent gain. Among his other picks, Pimco High Income Fund jumped 78.5 percent and BlackBerry maker Research in Motion catapulted 75.2 percent.
Hyman, who scored big with a 269.2 percent gain in online mortgage lender Tree.com, also hit a home run with investment adviser U.S. Global Investors, up 93.7 percent.
“;I expect the market to remain range bound not just through the end of the year but for several years,”; Hyman said. “;In a word, I think the market will likely be flat. The overall value of the U.S. indexes have risen back above levels that reflect their current values.”;
Richard Dole, chief executive of Honolulu investment adviser Dole Capital LLC, lost 1.8 percent. At the end of the quarter, he sold his best performer, power plant builder Shaw Group (up 33.9 percent) to buy Honolulu-based Territorial Bancorp, the parent of Territorial Savings Bank, that will go public tomorrow.
Dwight Melton, co-founder of the Hawaii Stocks and Options Group, sold iShares Barclays 20+Year Treasury Bond Fund at midyear after putting all of his money into the pick and watching it plunge 19.6 percent. He added five stock selections to his portfolio.
2009 YEAR-END FORECASTS
Hawaii stock experts are mixed on whether the major indexes will finish up for the year.
| WHO | DOW | NASDAQ | S&P 500 |
| Norm Caris | 9,700 | 1,765 | 1,000 |
| Richard Dole | 9,200 | 1,735 | 950 |
| Barry Hyman | 8,500 | 1,500 | 850 |
| Dwight Melton | 10,000 | 1,810 | 1,040 |
| 2008 close | 8,776.39 | 1,577.03 | 903.25 |
| June 30, 2009 | 8,447.00 | 1,835.04 | 919.32 |
| 2009 CONSENSUS | 9,350.00 | 1,702.50 | 960.00 |
