HONOLULU police are bracing for what already appears to be an increase in property crimes coinciding with the nation's economic crisis, but they might be unable to reverse the trend. Homeowners and business people need to increase their own security to protect valuables.

By the end of November, burglaries in Central and East Oahu already had surpassed the 2007 totals, according to Honolulu police statistics. “;We've been able to knock down Waikiki's crime rate, but it's the big picture we're looking at,”; said Detective David Chong.

However, a recent study questions whether increased arrests deter burglars. Thomas A. Garrett and Lesli S. Ott, researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, found that “;criminals are myopic with regard to changing probabilities of arrest and thus do not consider the likelihood of the negative consequences of committing a crime.”; Criminals also might not be aware of increased policing, they added.

In a study of 20 mainland cities completed in August, the researchers found that “;short-run changes in economic conditions influence property crimes in a greater number of cities,”; supporting the long-held view, although statistics vary from one city to the next. They suggested that “;changing economic conditions and deterrence may have a greater influence on city crime over long time horizons.”;

Garrett and Ott left to future researchers to answer the question, “;How long a time horizon? At what point, both in duration and severity, do worsening economic conditions induce criminal activity?”;

We can only hope that a lengthy time horizon is not in the offing, but homeowners and business people should be prepared for the worst.