Hawaii visitor arrivals plunged 15.9 percent in November to push the year-to-date decline to 10.2 percent—the worst recorded 11-month dip ever in arrivals for the state's lagging tourism industry.

According to state historical data, Hawaii has not experienced such a major 11-month drop in arrivals since the year-to-date visitor count fell by 8.7 percent following the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

“;This is our deepest 11-month decrease,”; said state Tourism Liaison Marsha Wienert. “;We've got some challenges ahead.”;

The visitor industry offered a plethora of holiday-related specials last month; however, despite seeing a small pickup in Thanksgiving-related traffic, the state posted its sixth straight double-digit drop in visitor arrivals, Wienert said. As a result, it is likely that the state's visitor count will fall below the 9.3 percent annual decrease posted in 2001, Wienert said.

“;We had estimated that we'd be off by 10 percent for the year, but right now it looks like it's going to be a little more,”; Wienert said.

Members of Hawaii's visitor industry have said that they expect to see some pickup during Christmas and New Year's; however, they do not think that they will see recovery in December or even in the first half of next year.

“;There's softness everywhere,”; said Barry Wallace, executive vice president of Hospitality Services for Outrigger Enterprises. “;We are concerned as we move into next year.”;

If performance for the state's visitor industry continues to move downward, 2008 may be the worst year, in terms of percentage declines, since the Great Depression, Wienert said. Visitor counts to the islands dropped by 15.9 percent in 1930, 15.4 percent in 1931 and 34.3 percent in 1932, Wienert said. Eleven-month records were not available for those time periods.

While the state posted arrivals growth in January and February, the credit crunch, the housing crisis and the overall downturn in the global economy since have caused even avid travelers to become skittish about long-haul leisure trips. Visitors that come now are often looking for bargains. As a result, other leading tourism indicators in November outside of arrivals were down, too.

Total air visitor expenditures dropped 15.3 percent to $805.3 million in November, while average daily spending declined to $179.50 per person and total visitor days for air and cruise visitors decreased 12.5 percent, according to the latest statistics released yesterday by the Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism.

Destinations across the globe are experiencing similar challenges due to the lack of travel demand; however, Hawaii's problems are compounded by its sheer distance. Only kamaaina are poised to take advantage of weekend trips in the islands, and even they cannot drive to the destination.

Indeed, all of Hawaii's market segments, except the meetings, incentives and convention market, saw falling arrivals last month. Year to date, most market segments except for Canada have posted double-digit declines in arrivals.

The visitor count from the U.S. East plummeted 14.4 percent for the month and 11.2 percent for the year. However, perhaps more troubling for Hawaii's visitor industry was the continued severe decline in its top U.S. West market, which saw air arrivals drop by 18 percent in November and by 14 percent for the year.

“;Many of the markets that we rely on the most like California, Arizona and Nevada are among those that have been hardest hit by the credit crisis and the declining home values,”; Wallace said.

Hawaii's most important international market, the Japan market, took a 20.3 percent nose-dive in November, bringing the year-to-date drop to 10 percent. Going forward, traffic from Japan to Hawaii is expected to be down by 8.9 percent during the New Year's holiday, according to a forecast from Japan Airlines. The declines are due to an 11.4 percent drop in seats from last year and continued economic challenges, the company said.

Arrivals from Canada, traditionally Hawaii's most faithful fall market, fell 7.1 percent in November. The market was up 5.9 percent for the year, but was not able to offset other shortfalls.

Cruise ship arrivals were down 21.9 percent for the month and 21.8 percent for the year as the market continued to grapple with the loss of two Hawaii home-ported NCL America ships and fewer stops from foreign-flagged ships, Wienert said.

Decreased cruise traffic was responsible for an estimated 50.2 percent of the decline in visitors felt by the Big Island, 45.9 percent of Kauai's drop, 32.4 percent of Maui's decline and 20.6 percent of Oahu's fall, she said.

Hawaii's neighbor island markets were hit hard last month by the drop in cruise traffic, seasonal island preferences, rising interisland airfares and reduced flight options.

“;There has never been a time like this in Hawaii's visitor industry,”; said Ed Hubennette, Marriott International's vice president of North Asia, Hawaii and the South Pacific.

It is impossible to pinpoint a market turnaround given the confluence of factors affecting Hawaii's tourism industry, Wienert said.

“;This isn't a singular event so it's going to take longer to recover,”; she said. “;We just have to be patient, but that's hard when people are being laid off.”;