The national recession reverberating throughout the country has driven optimism down in Hawaii, with only 17 percent of Honolulu employers expecting to hire in the first quarter of 2009, according to the latest employment outlook by Manpower Inc.

Of more than 125 local businesses surveyed, the report released today found that 13 percent of businesses expect to reduce payrolls, while another 61 percent expect to maintain the current work force and 9 percent were uncertain of their hiring intentions.

Still, Honolulu ranked 80th in the country for net employment outlook, with a projected 4 percent increase in hiring in the upcoming quarter compared to the national average of 3 percent, according to Manpower spokeswoman Bethany Perkins.

“;Honolulu definitely looks like it's in a better position than most of the other areas,”; she said. “;It's very steady and it looks like things are going to stay stagnant in a good way, so a lot of people wouldn't be losing their jobs.”;

While the study doesn't predict any significant declines, there aren't a lot of substantial increases in hiring either. Manpower changed its methodology for the latest employment outlook making last year's numbers incomparable.

Job prospects in the upcoming quarter seem best in wholesale and retail trade, professional and business and other services. They appear worst for employers in the leisure and hospitality industry, which plans to reduce staffing in alignment with an anticipated severe drop in visitor arrivals for the first quarter.

“;Like everywhere else in the world, tourism is being affected by the worldwide economic challenges that we face,”; said Marsha Wienert, state tourism liaison. “;We've have had a great impact on tourism because of that, which has caused some decreases in jobs. As we go into 2009 we expect the same softness in the tourism market, especially in the first quarter next year.”;

Staffing levels are expected to remain unchanged in construction, durable and nondurable goods manufacturing, transportation and utilities, information, financial activities, education and health services, and government.

Of 31,800 employers surveyed nationally, 16 percent expect to hire during the quarter, while 13 percent anticipate reducing their payrolls. The majority - 67 percent - of businesses expect staffing to remain the same, while 5 percent are undecided.

Honolulu is one of 201 metropolitan statistical areas in the survey, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.15 percent for the Western region.