StarBulletin.com

Voting in isles among lowest


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POSTED: Saturday, November 08, 2008

Despite predictions for record turnout on Election Day, the numbers of eligible voters casting ballots in Hawaii and across the nation remained about the same as the last presidential election, according to two preliminary estimates.

               

     

 

 

VOTER TURNOUT

        The turnout estimates vary because the studies used different estimates of eligible voters:

       

       

Center for the Study of the American Electorate

       

                                                                                                                                                   
Hawaii 45.3%
U.S. 61.2%

       
U.S. Election Project

       

                                                                                                                                                   
Hawaii 51.4%
U.S. 61.5%

       

       

       

       

For Hawaii, that means the state remains at or near the bottom when compared with eligible voter turnout in other states.

In terms of actual voters—about 24,000 more people cast ballots Tuesday than in the last presidential election in 2004, according to the state Office of Elections. However, when compared to the number of registered voters, Hawaii's voter turnout of 66 percent was about 1 percent lower than in 2004.

Hawaii's turnout drops even lower to about 51.4 percent when compared with the estimated number of voters who could have cast ballots, according to Michael McDonald, a professor at George Mason University who runs the United States Election Project. Eligible voters include U.S. citizens age 18 and older who are not felons. It is a broader measure of turnout than the state's focus on registered voters.

               

     

 

 

» www.elections.gmu.edu/Blog.html

» www.american.edu/media/pr.htm

       

       

Nationally, both McDonald and Curtis Gan, who runs the Center for the Study of the American Electorate at American University, estimate turnout at about 61 percent of the eligible voting age population. Gan estimated that 45.3 percent of eligible Hawaii voters cast a ballot this year.

The highest-turnout states—Minnesota, Maine, Wisconsin and New Hampshire—saw between 72 percent and 77 percent of eligible voters go to the polls, according to McDonald.

McDonald placed Hawaii's turnout above only Utah, while Gan had Hawaii last among the 47 states he studied.

There is some good news: McDonald estimates Hawaii's turnout rose about 3 percent from 2004, when 48.5 percent of eligible voters cast ballots.

“;There's an interesting contrast with Alaska,”; McDonald said. Turnout in the home state of Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin dropped to about 62.4 percent this year from 69.1 percent in 2004.

“;There looked to be a home-state effect,”; for Hawaii-born Barack Obama, he said. “;But Palin was not a favored daughter.”;

McDonald and Gan noticed a significant drop in Republican turnout in the presidential race. Republicans staying home might have dampened the overall turnout, they speculated.

Among the 47 states that Gan studied, Hawaii had the biggest drop of eligible voters who chose the Republican presidential candidate. Gan estimates only 12.7 percent of eligible Hawaii voters went for Sen. John McCain on Tuesday, a nearly 10 percent drop from those who chose President Bush in 2004.

Hawaii Democrats saw votes for its presidential candidate increase to 32.5 percent of eligible voters this year from 26.2 percent in 2004. Only Indiana and North Carolina, two normally Republican states, had a larger increase in Democratic turnout for president.