No. 9 Waianae at No. 5 Leilehua.

Winner stays alive. Loser is done.

This is not the scenario either team wanted this week, but somehow, the Seariders may flash a wry grin. After all, Waianae (5-5) has already beaten the Mules at Hugh Yoshida Stadium this season.

Now, with third place and the final Oahu Interscholastic Association Division I state tournament berth at stake, Leilehua (8-2) is backed up and what had seemed like another smooth run to perhaps another state title has turned into something else.

Is it enough to derail the Mules? Probably not. This is a program built from the ground up, since the years when current head coach Nolan Tokuda was the JV mentor. Their approach to the game welcomes pressure and expectations. Few programs find as many creative outlets against defensive schemes.

Waianae won't stray far from its wing-T offense and rugged defense, which leaves fans with another classic showdown between rivals in the OIA Red West.

Parity in the OIA Red this fall has been realized. Farrington needed a blocked field goal to stop Leilehua's last-minute drive in last week's 26-24 win over the Mules. Waianae was within range of Kahuku all night long before falling 12-7 in the other semifinal.

Stats-wise, the Mules are glorious. Not including the numbers at Nanakuli (which have never been reported), Manley has passed for 2,230 yards with 19 touchdowns and nine picks. Rico Newman has done just about everything, including punting. Newman has 42 receptions for 409 yards, including two touchdowns. He has rushed for 415 yards and seven scores. He has also reached paydirt on a 54-yard punt return and a 90-yard kickoff return.

Edieson Dumlao has endured a series of injuries, but continues to bounce back. The senior has 48 receptions for 634 yards and nine touchdowns, including six scores in the past three games. Cheves Aberilla-Ramento has 37 catches for 667 yards and five touchdowns.

Last week's loss to Farrington was punctuated by two key stats: three picks by Manley (two returned for touchdowns) and a season-low 2 yards of rushing by the entire offense. It won't get much easier against a Waianae defense that has already found a way to slow the Mules attack.

In Waianae's 27-21 win on Sept. 26, Manley was 17-for-29 for 190 yards and Leilehua rushers totaled 45 yards. The Mules had just 43 plays from scrimmage, while Waianae had 55 snaps largely because of the Seariders' power on the ground. Danny Kekoanui (148 rushing yards) and Johnathan Ligsay (110) led the charge as Leilehua suffered its first loss of the season.

Defensive tackle Wade Keliikipi has been a beast this season. He had 11 tackles in the loss to Kahuku.

In one sense, the Seariders might be glad to be on the road again. They lost three times at home this year.

Here's a look at more of tomorrow's matchups:

No. 8 Kamehameha vs. No. 1 Punahou

When they met back on Sept. 26, Kamehameha was well-rested with a bye the week before. Punahou was coming off a humbling 40-19 loss to Saint Louis. The Warriors had a chance to knock down a team on the ropes.

Instead, Punahou prevailed 28-6, using a new “;Zero”; defensive scheme that limited the normally run-heavy Warriors to 49 rushing yards (1.7 per attempt) and picked off Kamehameha quarterback Edmund Kamano Jr. twice.

Of course, this is the ILH, where Division I rivals meet twice a year. Kamehameha (7-4, 4-3) is out of title contention but could play a huge factor with an upset of the Buffanblu (8-1, 5-1), who are tied with Saint Louis for the lead.

No. 6 Baldwin at King Kekaulike

It has been, to say the least, a raucous season for both the Bears and Na Alii. Baldwin (7-1, 6-0) has survived the gauntlet of the MIL as first-year quarterback Buta Wilhelm-Ioane has developed steadily. King Kekaulike (4-4, 3-3) has been on a roller-coaster ride since its trip to Disney World in August. It was the first Baldwin-King Kekaulike matchup a month ago that triggered a DOE investigation into hand gestures used by Na Alii coaches and players. Those gestures have been abandoned since, but this rivalry still has plenty of fuel left in the tank.

Pac-Five at No. 7 Iolani

Afternoon football at Eddie Hamada Field is one of the ILH's historic gems. Iolani (8-3, 6-2) has the league's Division II crown and a state berth wrapped up, but the Wolfpack won't give this game away. Playmaker Darin Kamealoha didn't play in the first matchup on Sept. 19, won by Iolani 48-17.

Maui vs. Kamehameha-Maui

The Sabers (0-8, 0-6) are running out of chances for that first win. KS-Maui (3-5, 3-3) can be tough, as it was in a 27-26 loss to Baldwin, or surprisingly not so tough, as it was in a 44-0 loss to Lahainaluna last week.