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Year-end rally hopes send stocks higher


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POSTED: Wednesday, November 05, 2008

NEW YORK » Investors believing that Wall Street is on the verge of a yearend rally piled into the market yesterday, brushing off more weak economic data while they scarfed up stocks and propelled the Dow Jones industrials up 300 points to its highest close in four weeks.

It was the biggest Election Day rally for the Dow, topping the 1.2 percent gain seen in 1984 when Ronald Reagan defeated Walter Mondale. Prior to 1980, the market was closed on Election Day.

Some analysts said the market rose on relief that the presidential election was about to be over. But others said investors were anticipating a year-end recovery from Wall Street's huge sell-off and were buying to be sure they didn't miss out on its start.

“;I seriously doubt it has much to do with the election, other than we're all looking forward to it being over,”; said independent investment strate- gist Edward Yardeni.

The fact that Wall Street is in the final stretch of a tough year is probably lifting stocks more than the elections, he said. “;It's almost been a classic textbook crash in September and October followed by a year-end rally.”;

The U.S. Commerce Department said yesterday that factory orders fell 2.5 percent in September from August levels, much worse than the 0.7 percent drop analysts predicted. But investors generally expect data from September, and even October, to be extremely weak, as credit markets began to seize up in mid-September. Analysts believe much of the bad news is already factored into stock prices; last week saw the Dow rise 11.3 percent - its best weekly gain in 34 years.

“;The risk of a depression is off the table,”; said Ben Halliburton, chief investment officer of Tradition Capital Management.

The Dow rose 305.45, or 3.28 percent, to 9,625.28. The Dow last closed above 9,500 on Oct. 6, when it finished at 9,955.50.

The broader indexes also rose. The Standard & Poor's 500 index gained 39.45, or 4.08 percent, to 1,005.75. The Nasdaq composite index rose 53.79, or 3.12 percent, to 1,780.12, its sixth straight advance and its longest winning streak of the year.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 7.47, or 1.39 percent, to 545.97.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 4 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to a light 1.3 billion shares.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 3.73 percent from 3.92 percent late Monday.

The dollar fell against most other major currencies, while gold prices rose.

Light, sweet crude jumped $6.62 to settle at $70.53 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, a reaction to the slide in the dollar.

Energy and industrial stocks led the market higher, while health care names, often a defensive investment, showed more modest advances. Exxon Mobil Corp. rose 4.3 percent, aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. rose 3.5 percent and Johnson & Johnson advanced 1.19 percent.