If you haven't voted yet and have attended a campaign rally or signed up to support Barack Obama or John McCain, expect at least one phone call today and even tomorrow.

If you're for or against rail or for any mayoral candidate, expect multiple calls and e-mails.

The last hours before an election are all about what campaign managers call GOTV, or Get Out the Vote.

It's when weather reports become just as critical as pre-election poll numbers. (The Election Day forecast, by the way, is for partly cloudy skies with scattered windward and mountain showers and isolated leeward showers.)

Andy Winer, Obama's Hawaii coordinator, said the campaign has collected a list of about 40,000 to 45,000 voters who have attended rallies, registered to vote in the Democratic caucuses, or signed up to support Obama through the Web site.

For the last three weekends, volunteers have been calling the people on the list to encourage them to vote early.

Those that haven't voted yet—about 30,000—will be getting calls today and tomorrow to make sure they turn out.

“;There's still an awful lot of traditional voters and the final poll isn't done until Tuesday night,”; said Andy Blom, executive director of the state McCain campaign.

 

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Republicans are also making phone calls and both campaigns are not just targeting voters here but have been calling supporters in the battleground states of Nevada and Virginia.

“;It's nuts and bolts politics,”; Blom said. “;When all the talking is done, a lot depends on making sure your people get to the polls.”;

A strong get-out-the-vote effort can make a 3 to 4 percentage point difference in an election, Winer said.

One factor both campaigns are worried about is the possibility news networks will project the winner of the presidential election before voting ends in Hawaii, especially if key battleground states on the East Coast go to Obama, as some pre-election polls suggest.

It's happened in eight of the last 12 presidential elections, said Bill Adams, a professor of public policy at George Washington University, who wrote a book on “;Election Night News & Voter Turnout.”;

“;We definitely have concerns,”; said Winer. “;We are obviously aware that that could be an issue.”;

Winer doesn't believe the presidential race here is in doubt, but he said there could be an impact on local races.

Blom said Republicans have similar concerns.

“;It hurts local candidates in both parties,”; he said. “;There's as much disincentive to vote if you find out your candidate has already won as if your candidate has already lost.”;

But Hawaii Democratic Party Chairman Brian Schatz believes people will turn out to vote regardless of whether the presidential election is already decided.

“;I really think we're looking at a level of enthusiasm that is difficult to overestimate,”; Schatz said. “;We don't think anything is going to prevent people from voting in this historic election.”;

Former Gov. Ben Cayetano, who supervised elections as lieutenant governor, said in an e-mail that he doesn't recall an election where projections of a winner had an effect on Hawaii voters.

“;Local voters will turn out regardless of what's happening on the mainland,”; he wrote. “;Furthermore, there seems to be enough interest in the rail ballot and the mayor's race (for Kauai and Big Island also) to assure voters who intended to vote will turn out.”;

Adams, who did not specifically look at Hawaii's voting patterns in his study, said other states have shown no evidence that early projections depress voter turnout.

“;Westerners hate projections as devaluing their franchise, making them feel like second-class citizens,”; he said in an e-mail. “;The best argument against early projections is not that they depress turnout. The best argument is that in a democracy, a vote is too precious for anybody's vote to be treated like it doesn't count.”;