The winner of this year's mayoral race will be critical in shaping a multibillion-dollar mass-transit system to alleviate Honolulu's growing traffic congestion - a problem that has plagued the island for decades.

Oahu voters are being asked to decide the fate of Mayor Mufi Hannemann's proposed steel rail system, but regardless of the outcome, the next mayor will have to implement some kind of mass transit project during an economic downturn.

Hannemann and his challenger, former ally City Councilwoman Ann Kobayashi, have gently tried to steer the mayor's race away from the rail transit to the economy as the biggest issue facing the new mayor.

“;This is no time for on-the-job training,”; Hannemann said in a recent interview, reiterating a line to highlight Kobayashi's lack of executive experience. “;I'm just going to continue to do what I can to do to help this economy, that's including the continued emphasis I put on the infrastructure and the (capital improvements) budget.”;

At a televised mayoral debate Tuesday night, Kobayashi brought up the economy immediately in her opening statements.

“;Over the past month, we have witnessed the unfolding of the global economic meltdown,”; Kobayashi said. “;We must keep the people of Oahu employed. We can do this by creating an environment where existing businesses can be successful.”;

  MANY SCENARIOS could come out of Tuesday's mayoral and mass transit votes.

If Hannemann is re-elected, but voters reject his rail transit system, he has said repeatedly that it would be “;very difficult”; to proceed.

Hannemann still won't be legally bound to stop the system, but it could create a domino effect for local politicians to withdraw their support and it could jeopardize federal support.

Hannemann said he would also call for the state Legislature to take back the hundreds of millions of dollars collected to pay for the transit system from a tax surcharge if rail is defeated.

“;I'm still an eternal optimist,”; Hannemann said, declining to say whether he would propose another mass-transit system that's not rail. “;Let's cross that bridge when we get there.”;

If Kobayashi is elected, but voters approve Hannemann's system, Kobayashi said she would “;follow the will of the voters”; and proceed with a rail system she opposes. But Kobayashi said she would be more forthcoming with the public than Hannemann and would not spend millions of taxpayers' dollars on the project's outreach, which includes advertisements.

“;Ann would still proceed in the most fiscally responsible manner,”; said Kobayashi's campaign manager, City Councilman Donovan Dela Cruz. “;I don't think she would delay anything.”;

In perhaps the most unlikely of scenarios, if Kobayashi beats the incumbent and voters reject Hannemann's system, she would proceed with her newly proposed mass-transit plan of a 40-mile system. Her “;EZWay”; proposal includes 15 miles of a three-lane elevated highway with zipper lanes and an express hybrid bus.

“;If Ann Kobayashi went back and tried to get her mass-transit plan adopted by the City Council, she'd probably have more trouble than what Mufi had went through,”; said University of Hawaii at Manoa political scientist Neal Milner. “;It means starting from scratch with a group of people (the City Council) who are a lot better at opposing things than they are at coming up with things.”;

  THE NEW MAYOR will also have to work with a fractured City Council, which includes the return of a familiar face.

Former City Councilman and Hannemann's 2004 mayoral opponent Duke Bainum will fill Kobayashi's uncontested City Council seat. Bainum has said he will vote independently, but it's too soon to tell whether there will be a power shift within the nine-member City Council.

“;The City Council is always very hard to predict because they have their own culture,”; Milner said. “;It depends whether Bainum gets involved in a leadership capacity that's anti-Hannemann.”;

The “;anti-Hannemann”; members of the City Council include Romy Cachola, Charles Djou, Dela Cruz and Kobayashi. If Kobayashi becomes mayor, the “;anti-Hannemann”; members could be the ones in power.

Or Kobayashi could face even fiercer opposition than Hannemann does with the City Council.