StarBulletin.com

Early balloting changes both voters and campaigns


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POSTED: Sunday, October 26, 2008

Didja vote yet?

If you voted already, you are part of a growing trend.

The big change in voting here and across the nation is the increase in absentee voting.

Politicians and their consultants would prefer a natural rhythm to the election. To be planned out properly, a race should have a beginning, a middle and an end. With absentee voting and the rise of early voting, there are many middles and many ends to the race.

In the 2006 general election, 18 percent of the voters cast an absentee ballot. In 2004 the rate was 20 percent, in 2002 it was 16 percent and in 2000 it was 11 percent.

According to the Early Voting Information Center at Reed College in Portland, Or., early voters have tended to be white, well educated and wealthier than average voters. There also was a tendency for them to vote Republican.

This year, a whole new dynamic is under way across the country.

In North Carolina, for instance, African-Americans are voting now in huge numbers. On the first day of early voting, the rate was a 400 percent increase compared to the last election. Officials in Florida are reporting long lines at early voting centers.

In Honolulu, Glen Takahashi, a city election official, reports a nearly 20 percent increase in requests for absentee ballots this year.

University of Hawaii political scientists Neal Milner and Ira Rohter acknowledge the movement, saying tactics have changed. Rohter says early voting forces candidates to start an expensive get-out-the-vote (GOTV) campaign earlier. Milner sees candidates having to constantly revise their campaign messages.

Both the GOP and the Democrats are working on early GOTV campaigns and Milner sees the Obama campaign, with its many new and young voters, needing to get voters out early because young voters are never dependable voters.

Making voting as easy as possible, Milner suggests, is one way to make the youth vote materialize.

“;Vote now,”; Barack Obama urged at a Florida rally last week, telling voters “;you don't know what could happen on Election Day. Your car could break down, you could oversleep, you could forget.”;

Obama knows the reputation of young voters as well as political consultants.

This year appears to be the election when both young and old say “;yes”; to the question, “;Didja vote?”;