If Hawaii is feeling the pinch of a 17 percent reduction in tourists and a subsequent shortfall of $1 billion in state revenues, what will happen in a few years if we get even fewer tourists? The reduction in tourists owes greatly to the increase in air fares owing to the price of jet fuel. But what will happen when oil starts getting scarcer? How will people travel to Hawaii in large enough numbers to sustain our economy?

Not only that, but we could all be living in the dark in Hawaii because more than 90 percent of our electricity comes from burning oil. A Shell Oil report says oil will start getting scarcer by 2012. That is likely to drive up oil prices, making air travel more expensive. Moreover, the total proven world oil reserves in 2003 were 1,147 billion barrels, while the current daily consumption is 80 million barrels. You do the math for how long the oil will last. In addition, simulate an increase in consumption by giants China and India, and you will find that the oil will be used up in 25 or 30 years. Even if the United States drills offshore, we won't materially change this equation. I know how fast 25 years pass. In terms of planning for technology growth, 25 years is tomorrow.

So what are we going to do? We can't create the 1,600 megawatts of electricity Oahu needs just by installing a 20 MW green electricity generator here and there and giving a few incentives for solar energy. The 400 MW wind-power project for Oahu, Maui and Molokai is a good start, but it fulfills only a maximum of 25 percent of Oahu's requirements. Where the other 700 MW of renewable energy will come from (as mentioned in the HECO-state agreement) hasn't been proved.

We have to think bigger and focus on reliable alternate solutions like ocean thermal or nuclear energy. These will require billion-dollar investments - tough decisions that Hawaii needs to make starting now.

Loss of air travel isn't the only danger; loss of sea transport will result in a 95 percent reduction in all our incoming goods and produce. How will we eat? The future of Hawaii's shipping, its lifeline, appears in dire straits. Thus, we have to reinvent Hawaii's economy, because I don't see a reasonable alternate yet to jet fuel, or to diesel fuel for ships. Ethanol production to substitute for jet and diesel fuel would take up all the land there is for agriculture. We would have travel, but we wouldn't have food.

Likewise, if you go down the list of battery- or hydrogen-powered airplanes and nuclear-powered merchant ships and other technologies, you quickly begin to see how impractical they might be to sustain. Hydrogen-driven airplanes, which show promise from the performance perspective, have water vapor as their main byproduct, but water vapor is the largest greenhouse gas on this planet. I don't see what alternative the world is getting ready for, though reverting to ships with sails is a possibility, as is reverting to zeppelin airships.

But is that what we want? The average person has long believed that the world will find a way, and hoped that their governments are looking out for them. But governments and lawmakers could have started with the second oil shock in 1973 and we could have been in the clear by now.

While we can partly solve ground transport problems with electric cars running on batteries and rail running on nuclear or ocean thermal power, we still have a problem with air and sea transport. The world seems to be on a crash course. But Hawaii, being an island state, stands to be affected more. The $1 billion shortfall this year is nothing compared to what could happen in 20 years, if tourists disappear. Hawaii can't afford to wait for the world to come up with a solution for its unique problems. Hawaii's people have the intellectual power to reinvent their economy for themselves, but do they have the vision and wisdom?