Kauai's economy may see little or no growth this year after 11 years of statewide expansion, First Hawaiian Bank economic adviser Leroy Laney said yesterday during an annual overview of the island's economy.

Laney cited a weaker tourism industry, Gay & Robinson's announcement last month that it will shut down its commodity sugar production, and a drop in job growth, retailing and housing sales.

“;There seems to be greater acceptance of the downturn this time than in the 1990s when there was greater denial of the downturn's existence or its length,”; he said in remarks released before the conference.

“;That alone is comforting because it will foster more realistic decisions.”;

Kauai's economy has decelerated along with the rest of the state, Laney said at the 34th annual forum at the Grand Hyatt Kauai resort.

Job growth is estimated at 1 percent for 2008 - a drop from nearly 3 percent last year - slowing along with construction, retailing and tourism.

“;Tourism, of course, is still Kauai's big economic engine,”; Laney said. “;In 2007, the island's visitor industry had a very good year, leading the state in total arrivals and total spending. However, 2008 hasn't been so kind; Kauai lags other islands in both arrivals and spending.”;

Kauai's tourism growth in 2007 was 5.7 percent, he said, while spending rose 4.5 percent; in the first half of this year, Kauai's tourism fell 13.7 percent year over year, while spending dropped 10.4 percent. That slowing growth was caused by the loss of Aloha and ATA airlines and the pullout of two interisland cruise ships this year.

The tourism sector is key to Kauai construction, Laney said, citing the North Shore's renovated Princeville hotel, which will be rebranded as Hawaii's first St. Regis hotel opening in 2009; the new Marriott time-share and Ritz Carlton Residences at the Kauai Lagoons; delayed projects due to market conditions and permitting at Poipu; and the shopping center in Kukuiula on the South Shore.

Sales of single-family homes and condos have been off “;significantly”; this year, Laney said, although the median home price increased 0.4 percent in the first six months of the year to $657,000 from $655,000, while the median condo price increased 10 percent to $579,500 from $525,000 in 2007. The number of home sales dropped 97 percent to 148 from 247, while condo sales fell 60 percent to 110 from 170 in 2007.

Laney also highlighted the benefits of the Barking Sands missile range, which provides more than 800 jobs with a payroll of about $135 million annually; the island's seed corn research industry, which pumps $100 million into the economy statewide; and a record year for filming, led by the movie “;Tropic Thunder,”; which is estimated to have contributed $60 million to Kauai's economy.