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POSTED: Monday, March 09, 2009

Can the stock market get any worse?

With the Dow Jones industrial average down more than 50 percent off its October 2007 high of 14,165, investors have to be wondering whether it's too late to bail or is now the time to do some bargain hunting.

Four Hawaii stock experts, who are back again for the eighth annual Star-Bulletin survey of best investment ideas, say being selective is paramount since the recession still may have a ways to go.

Norm Caris, managing-director-institutional sales for Caris and Co., is back to defend his crown after his hypothetical $20,000 portfolio lost just 13.2 percent in 2008 in a devastating year for the market.

He is joined by the other three participants from last year as well. They include Barry Hyman, vice president-managing team for the Maui branch of FIM Group Ltd. (down 23.4 percent); Dwight Melton, co-founder of the Hawaii Stocks and Options Group (off 35.9 percent); and Richard Dole, chief executive of Honolulu investment adviser Dole Capital LLC (off 46.9 percent).

All the experts made their first-quarter selections at the start of this year.

Caris, who lives on Kauai, says that now is the best time to own bonds.

“;Pimco High Income Fund is the best bond play I'm aware of,”; said Caris about one of his 2009 picks. “;It is run by the best bond managers in the country. There is $8 trillion in money market funds getting just about zero return right now and I think some of that money is going to try to find yield.”;

Melton, a three-time champion, put all of his portfolio money in iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund.

“;I think fixed-income instruments may be the best bet,”; he said.

Dole said it's likely that level heads will prevail and the stock market will recover long before the economy does but, at the same time, he adds that he doesn't expect much of a recovery until the banking crisis is solved.

Adds Hyman: “;This is an environment where security selection and management may be of critical importance.”;

 

Best investment ideas of 2009

Hawaii stock experts began the year with a $20,000 hypothetical portfolio:

 

NORM CARIS

Caris and Co.
Position:
Managing director for institutional sales
2008 return:
-13.2%

                                                               

     

     

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

     

     

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

     

     

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

     

     

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

     

     

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

     

     

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

     

     

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

     

 

Company	Ticker	Sector	2008 Close	Shares	2008 Total return	Starting value
Hawaiian Holdings	HA	Airlines	$6.38	600	+25.1%	$3,828.00
Collective Brands	PSS	Shoes / Apparel	$11.72	350	-32.6%	$4,102.00
Pimco High Income Fund	PHK	Government securities	$5.53	700	-46.1%	$3,871.00
Research in Motion	RIMM	Mobile communications	$40.58	100	-64.2%	$4,058.00
Ford	F	Autos	$2.29	1700	-66.0%	$3,893.00
Cash*						$248.00
Total						$20,000.00

BARRY HYMAN

FIM Group Ltd.
Position:
Vice president of management team
2008 return:
-23.4%

                                                               

     

     

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

     

     

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

     

     

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

     

     

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

     

     

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

     

     

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

     

     

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

     

 

Company	Ticker	Sector	2008 Close	Shares	2008 Total return	starting value
United Online	UNTD	Web portals	$6.07	659	-45.1%	$4,000.13
Cheung Kong Ltd.	CHEUY	Hong Kong developer	$9.46	423	-47.1%	$4,001.58
Dow Chemical	DOW	Chemicals	$15.09	265	-59.2%	$3,998.85
Tree.com	TREE	Financial services	$2.60	1,538	-64.5%	$3,998.80
U.S. Global Investors	GROW	Investment management	$4.89	818	-70.0%	$4000.02
Cash*						$.62
Total						$20,000.00

DWIGHT MELTON

Hawaii Stocks and Options Group
Position:
Co-founder
2008 return:
-35.9%

                                                               

     

     

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

     

     

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

     

     

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

     

 

Company	Ticker	Sector	2008 Close	Shares	2008 Total return	Starting value
iShares Barclays 20+ Yr. Treas. Bond Fund	TLT	Government bond fund	$119.35	167	+33.9%	$19,931.45
Cash*						$68.55
Total						$20,000.00

RICHARD DOLE

Dole Capital LLC
Position:
Chief executive
2008 return:
-46.9%

                                                               

     

     

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

     

     

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

     

     

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

     

     

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

     

     

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

     

     

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

     

     

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

     

 

Company	Ticker	Sector	2008 Close	Shares	2008 Total return	Starting value
Procter & Gamble	PG	Consumer products	$61.82	70	-13.8%	$4,327.40
Pfizer	PFE	Medical / drugs	$17.71	225	-16.9%	$3,984.75
Alexander & Baldwin	AXB	Ocean transportation / real estate	$25.06	150	-50.0%	$3,759.00
Bank of America	BAC	Banking	$14.08	300	-63.1%	$4,224.00
Shaw Group	SGR	Engineering	$20.47	175	-66.1%	$3,582.25
Cash*						$122.60
Total						$20,000.00