Iraq report should bring major changes to U.S. policy

THE ISSUE The Iraq Study Group's long-awaited report calls for an overhaul of U.S. policy to avoid "a humanitarian catastrophe."

BARELY a month after polarized voters ousted the Republican Party from control of Congress, an important proposal for a bipartisan approach to the war in Iraq should bring support and unity. Neither President Bush nor critics of his Iraq policy, including Hawaii's congressional delegation, are likely to quickly embrace the Iraq Study Group's bleak report and detailed recommendations, but public pressure should force them to do so in the weeks ahead.

The 79 specific recommendations by the group headed by former Secretary of State James Baker and former House Foreign Relations Chairman Lee Hamilton should not result in picking and choosing. "They are comprehensive and need to be implemented in a coordinated fashion," the report advises. "They should not be separated or carried out in isolation."

That might not please advocates of a precipitous withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq. "A slide toward chaos could trigger the collapse of Iraq's government and a humanitarian catastrophe," the report warns. "Neighboring countries could intervene. Sunni-Shia clashes could spread. Al-Qaida could win a propaganda victory and expand its base of operations. The global standing of the United States could be diminished. Americans could become more polarized."

Bush will need to be persuaded to abandon his refusal to negotiate directly with Iraq neighbors Iran and Syria, major sources of arms and finances for sectarian violence in Iraq. His past rejection of deadlines should be shelved in favor of the group's recommended "milestones" for the Iraqi government to reach -- or face reduced U.S. economic and military support.

Although the president has stopped calling for the United States to "stay the course," he said after meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki last week that the United States would stay "to get the job done, so long as the (Iraqi) government wants us there." The group's report rightly insists that the United States "must not make an open-ended commitment to keep large numbers of American troops deployed in Iraq."

The report calls for the Iraqi government to achieve control of its army by next April, control of its provinces by next September and security self-reliance a year from now. By 2008, it calls for U.S. combat forces in Iraq to be limited to special operations teams and to those used in training of Iraqis -- a force about half that of the 150,000 U.S. soldiers now in Iraq.

Although Bush is not expected immediately to turn each of the 79 recommendations into policy, his acceptance of the basic strategy would be a positive step. Robert Gates, his new defense secretary, has said he is open to all options in Iraq. He is likely to give due attention to the advice of the Iraq Study Group, of which he was a member before being nominated to the cabinet.