El Niño could extend hurricane season
Signs of a weak El Niño are developing in the Pacific Ocean and could result in a longer hurricane season, the National Weather Service reports.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center is talking about El Niño "conditions," said Nezette Rydell, Honolulu Forecast Office warning coordination specialist.
"It is not a forecast," she said, but "the conditions have been consistent for the past several months."
With slightly warmer ocean temperatures, Rydell said, "We can expect an extended length of the hurricane season. We can expect the possibility of systems forming well into November."
Warm ocean temperatures help fuel hurricanes.
Although the hurricane season normally runs from June through November, the peak usually is over by the end of September, she said.
Hawaii suffered drought with strong El Niños in the past. That is not expected with the weak event forming now, Rydell said, "but we'll certainly keep an eye on it."
El Niño (NEEN-yo), which means "the boy" in Spanish, is a weather phenomenon associated with disruption of the ocean-atmosphere system and warming of Pacific equatorial waters. It occurs every four to five years and can last 12 to 18 months.
Strong El Niños change worldwide weather patterns, bringing flooding, hurricanes and drought. In some years the severe weather has killed hundreds of people and caused billions of dollars in damage.
The last strong El Niño in Hawaii was from May 1997 to April 1998. A weak event occurred from June 2004 to February 2005, and a weak to moderate one from May 2002 to March 2003.
The Climate Prediction Center said no major impact is expected on autumn weather in the United States.
El Niño conditions are expected to continue until the spring of 2007, the center said.
In the Atlantic, El Niño has contributed to a milder hurricane season, NOAA hurricane forecaster Gerry Bell said, according to a Reuters report. "El Niños tend to suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic," he said.
El Niño usually causes wetter conditions in the Gulf Coast and Florida, and dry conditions in the Ohio Valley, Pacific Northwest and most Pacific islands, the Climate Prediction Center said.
Opposite conditions generally occur with La Nina (the girls), associated with colder ocean temperatures.
