Attracting crossover party votes easier said than done, some say
U.S. Rep. Ed Case and U.S. Sen. Daniel Akaka are watching to see how many independents and Republicans will vote in the Democratic primary election on Sept. 23.
Republicans are also voting in their own primary, but Case is expected to benefit if independents and Republicans hop the fence.
"I think many, many R's and indies (like me) will take a D ballot," said a longtime political worker who asked that his name not be used.
In the past three elections, the GOP primary has not drawn as many voters as the Democrats. On average the GOP only pulled in 66,000 voters in its primary, while the Democrats got an average of 181,000 in the last three statewide primaries.
But political observers look at the Case-Akaka race and say Case would benefit if the GOP and independents voted in the Democratic primary.
"I would think a lot of the Republicans will be looking to take Democratic ballots," says Don Clegg, a pollster and political strategist.
"There have been times when Republicans and those who are close to being independent would (vote in the) Democratic primary and then rationalize it to themselves," Clegg said.
For Case the key is the 1st Congressional District (urban Honolulu), up to the district dividing line in Waipahu and Mililani. The area is key because while the 2nd Congressional District has a contested primary election between former state Rep. Quentin Kawananakoa and state Sen. Bob Hogue, the 1st has few GOP primary races.
There are only two state Senate races and three state House races with Republicans opposing each other in the 1st Congressional District, and the congressional race features political unknowns, Mark Terry and Richard Hough.
So Republican voters do not have strong reasons to vote in the GOP primary in the 1st Congressional District.
Clegg says East Honolulu, an area that Case won when he ran for governor in 2002, is "middle-centerist and sometimes Republican," which might fit Case's voter profile.
Case agrees that the 1st Congressional District is now where he is concentrating his efforts in the final two weeks.
Akaka supporters acknowledge that there is some chance of a turnover in the Democratic primary, but they doubt it will be significant.
"I think it is much easier said than done to get individuals who are Republican to pick up a Democratic primary ballot," Andy Winer, Akaka campaign chairman, says.
Akaka's campaign is working to get out its own core Democratic Party voters, to blunt a GOP or independent crossover.
"We have an aggressive absentee voter program and identifying likely Akaka voters and getting them to the polls," Winer said.
Case, for his part, is casting his primary race as one that is too important to be left just to card-carrying Democrats.
"This election is going to be decided in the primary. For all intents and purposes, the winner of the Democratic primary is going to be the next U.S. senator," Case said.
"For my perspective this is going to be one of the most important decisions voters will make in a decade. ... I think the voters, all the voters of Hawaii, should vote in this race and in the Democratic primary," Case said.
Republican Gov. Linda Lingle, however, says that is not true. She points out that it is possible to encourage voters to cross over, because she got Democrats and independents to vote for her in the 1998 GOP primary election, which drew 159,000 voters. But this year, she is asking Republicans to stay home because she wants them to vote for Senate candidate Jerry Coffee.
Coffee withdrew after having a heart attack and surgery, but his name is still on the ballot. According to state law, if a person who is unable to run wins the primary, the party can pick a replacement.
"There are a lot of Republicans like myself who are going to be voting for Jerry Coffee," Lingle said.
Some Republicans, like longtime GOP worker Mel Ah Ching, said that might be the best solution. "It has crossed my mind to vote in the Democratic primary; I spent a whole hour watching those two (Case and Akaka) debate.
"But crossing over is not according to my Republican philosophy, and it would be difficult so I may just stick with voting for Coffee; he was my first choice anyway," Ah Ching said.
Winer and Lingle both agree that changing loyal party voters is something few politicians can do.
"Two years ago I was working for (mayoral candidate Duke) Bainum, and we believed the independent and Republican voters would go for Bainum," said Winer of Bainum, who lost to Mayor Mufi Hannemann. "We spent a lot of time and money trying to make that happen."
And Lingle says that while moving voters is possible, "I don't see the same kind of campaigning coming from Congressman Case. He doesn't seem to be putting in the same effort," she said.
"You have to be very public about it and say, 'If you don't vote for me in the primary, you won't get a chance to vote for me in the general,'" Lingle said.