Senate race polls deliver conflicting forecasts

Ed Case is 2 points behind in one and 21 back in the other

The campaigns of U.S. Rep. Ed Case and U.S. Sen. Daniel Akaka are promoting two different polls that came to much different conclusions on the race for Akaka's seat.

Case, who is looking to unseat Akaka in next month's Democratic primary, is publicizing the results of a national polling firm's local survey that shows him only 2 points behind Akaka. The poll was taken last Monday by Rasmussen Reports of 500 likely Hawaii voters. It has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.

The Akaka campaign commissioned its own poll by the Mellman Group, a national Democratic polling and political consulting firm.

"Our poll shows Akaka ahead 54-to-33," said Andy Winer, Akaka's campaign chairman.

The Akaka poll also surveyed 500 likely voters from July 31 to Aug. 2, according to Winer.

Case said his close results -- 47 for Akaka to his 45 percent in the Rasmussen poll -- show that voters are starting to think about the choice they will make this fall.

Winer discounted the Case poll, saying it was done with automated calling that did not screen for likely Democratic primary voters.