In an effort to listen to the ongoing dialogue within local political circles, the Star-Bulletin continues its monthly Insider Survey.

The Star-Bulletin asked a broad selection of lobbyists working for businesses, unions and social agencies, along with influential legislators and chairmen of Oahu neighborhood boards, to anonymously respond to a series of political questions. While their names are not attached to their answers, we list all who responded to the survey.

The survey is patterned after the weekly survey appearing in the respected Washington magazine the National Journal. Respondents were encouraged to allow us to use their names, and several agreed.

Questions were sent to 75 insiders, and 32 responded. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should be sent to rborreca@starbulletin.com.

Q: What issues are Hawaii Democrats and Republicans likely to emphasize as they campaign in 2006? What issues will tip the balance to the Democrats and what will help the GOP?

HOW THE DEMOCRATS CAN WIN:

» Democratic legislator: "The Dems will run on investing in the future and the legislative Republican, at the end of the day, will mimic the message -- so will (Governor) Lingle."

» Democrat lobbyist: "Support or opposition to the Iraq war will be a factor in the bigger races: congressional and possibly gubernatorial. The governor's continued support of the president could cause her to be on the defensive as his popularity wanes."

» Rep. Joe Souki (D, Waihee-Wailuku): "My feeling is that you need to give back some money to the good people of Hawaii. A tax break for the working poor would be great, or tax credits for food and medicine."

» Independent lobbyist: "Democrats need to convince the public that their tax money will be spent on services and projects that will make a real difference if they choose not to give taxpayers a rebate or some sort of tax relief."

» Democrat lobbyist: "As Governor Lingle campaigns for re-election and also supports local Republican candidates, Democrats will remind voters of Governor Lingle's 'secret trip' to Iraq to express support for President Bush and the Iraq war."

HOW THE DEMOCRATS CAN LOSE:

» Democratic legislator: "The viability of the Democrat's gubernatorial candidate: If not viable, then D's will not come out and that will hurt the House and Senate races."

» Democratic union lobbyist: "The gas cap, unless it is suspended or repealed."

» Republican lobbyist: "The gas cap was becoming a chain around the necks of the Democrats and with their decision (tentative vote to replace the gas cap) they have removed the frustration of the electorate blaming them for the high gas prices."

» Sen. Will Espero (D, Ewa-Kapolei-Ewa Beach): "Gas cap legislation had the possibility of being a major issue in the upcoming election. With the recommendation supporting a suspension of the wholesale gas price cap, this potentially volatile issue may not be as explosive as earlier predicted."

» Republican legislator: "The Democrats took credit for Act 51 (education reform law) and they will bear the brunt of public school parents' anger. Programs that parents support are being cut ... the weighted school formula hurts more local schools than it helps."

HOW THE REPUBLICANS CAN WIN:

» Sen. Fred Hemmings (R, Lanikai-Waimanalo): "It is status quo vs. reform. The status quo is owned and operated by the Democrat political juggernaut and its special interest. The agents of reform are most others who are led by Governor Lingle and the Republicans."

» GOP lobbyist: "The gas cap will hurt the Democrats if it is not resolved soon. I also think the Democrats suffer from a lack of leadership and candidates for the governor's race who have good visibility and inspire confidence."

» Rep. Barbara Marumoto (R, Kalani Valley-Diamond Head): "The Democrats' soft spot is their stubborn refusal to give back any of the huge surplus in the way of tax breaks."

» Democratic union leader: "Governor Lingle is courting the environmentalists' votes with her sustain- ability and energy policy package. The environment vote tends to be young and independent. It shows she has an issue to take to them."

» Independent neighborhood board chairman: "Republicans will link the Democrats to local issues -- the gas cap, which was a terrible decision, rising property tax rates and education."

» GOP lobbyist: "The property tax issue specially combined with the general adverse impact of exorbitant housing costs on Hawaii's families will be crucial issues. These issues may provide an ever-so-slight advantage to Republicans."

» Veteran Democratic lobbyist: "A strong fear among older citizens is their concern over what the increase in the general excise tax to help fund rail transit will do to them."

HOW THE REPUBLICANS CAN LOSE:

» Democrat lobbyist: "With respect to the Republicans, this 'religion vs. politics' is going to do them in. People are getting tired of it, and unless they temper their language, stance and distance themselves from the Christian right, it will be the thing to do them in."

» Democratic union lobbyist: "Support of Bush and his war will have impact."

» Independent neighborhood board chairman: "The Democrats will link (GOP) candidates to national issues such as the Iraq war, the Patriot Act and profiting of big business, especially oil. All of this will hurt the local GOP candidates."

» Democrat lobbyist: "There is enough going on at the national level to sink the GOP if, and that is a big if, it can be translated down to the local level."

» Democratic lobbyist: "Republicans were hoping to get mileage out of the Kakaako Makai redevelopment program, but little did they realize the big backlash on selling state land for high-priced condos. Score one for the Democrats."

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Communicating with voters will get results, respondents say

IT IS NOT the issue, it's the work devoted to campaigning that will triumph in the fall elections, according to several insiders.

Six of the respondents out of the 32 surveyed discounted any one issue as being enough to bring victory. Instead, they said, knowing your community, reflecting it and communicating with it was the way to victory.

For instance, David Rae, vice president for public affairs for the James Campbell Company, LLC, said no one issue would deliver the winning votes.

"Most people vote on how they feel about a candidate; where he or she stands on an issue is secondary.

"Insofar as issues play a major role, voters see them as 'markers' or indicators of a candidate's value system, character or cultural orientation," Rae said.

Neal Milner, University of Hawaii political scientist, said Hawaii today has no single issue so compelling that it would drive an election.

"The legislative elections are still local elections, and legislative elections don't have much to do with an overall message," Milner said.

"For state House races it is almost as if each one is a separate country," Milner observed.

A longtime Democratic Party worker and lobbyist repeated the advice that "all politics is local."

"The issues of importance in the legislative districts will be support, delivery and care for those things that matter in the district -- traffic, schools, parks," the lobbyist said.

A Democratic lawmaker said winners are the ones who work the hardest.

"Despite some very pressing statewide issues, the candidates that will be elected are the ones that have forged a genuine relationship with the community ... there is no substitute for hard work," the legislator said.

THE INSIDERS LEGISLATORS: Rep. Mark Takai (D), Rep. Joe Souki (D), Rep. Sylvia Luke (D), Rep. Brian Schatz (D), Rep Cynthia Thielen (R), Rep. Barbara Marumoto (R), Rep Kirk Caldwell (D), Sen. Will Espero (D), and Sen. Fred Hemmings (R). LOBBYISTS: G.A. "Red" Morris, John Radcliffe, Linda Chu Takayama, Grant Tanimoto, David Rae, Linda Rosehill, Kelly Rosati, Bette Tatum, Andy Chang, Donna Ikeda, Lorraine Akiba, Rick Tsujimura, Jack Hoag, Carl Takamura, Charles Toguchi, Annelle Amaral, Randy Perreira and Jimmy Kuroiwa. NEIGHBORHOOD BOARD MEMBERS: DeeDee Letts, Cynthia Rezentes, Lester Fukuda, Bob Chuck and Lester Muraoka.