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Will numbers add up
for Akaka Bill?

Hawaii's craftiest vote-counter, Senator Inouye, has an easy guide to figure out what will happen to the native Hawaiian sovereignty bill -- watch the day it is scheduled.

Inouye says the Akaka Bill will come up for a test vote in the next few months, but watch the day the bill is scheduled for a cloture vote.

Cloture is the name of the motion needed to free the Akaka Bill from the grip of the holds placed on it by conservative Republican senators.

With more curves than the road to Hana, the route from cloture to passage is a long way coming. For instance, there are lots of amendments. According to Senator Akaka, the bill is likely to have five amendments by sponsors and five amendments by opponents. No one is saying with any specificity what are the pro or con amendments. So there really is no way of knowing if anyone would recognize the bill if it does pass the Senate. The Office of Hawaiian Affairs is trying to put a realistic face on all that by telling supporters that now is the time to look long term and consider the benefits of getting something on the books as compared to remaining with what Hawaiians have now, which is nothing.

Inouye adds that if that the Akaka Bill cloture vote had actually been held last week, he had "great doubts" that it would have passed.

The reason is that for the bill to get the needed 60 votes, all 44 Democrats would have to be present and voting for it. But several key supporters, including Sen. Mary Landrieu, the Louisiana Democrat who didn't return to Washington until last Thursday because of Hurricane Katrina, were missing.

Still with all the Democrats properly counted, the bill does not yet have a clear ticket to ride in the Senate, much less the House. Conservative opponents are attempting to make the native Hawaiian sovereignty measure a national issue, claiming it would create a race-based government group and would open the door to other ethnic enclaves diluting America's message of equality for all.

In opposition, Hawaiians have a difficult time expanding the interest group beyond people from Hawaii. Although the bill has picked up support among Native Americans, it is still flying under most political radar screens.

And even the bill's supporters admit that many members of the Senate haven't heard anything about the Akaka Bill. A little knowledge of how the Senate works, Inouye says, is needed to guide you in figuring out if the bill will actually pass.

"I hope it is scheduled for a Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday," Inouye says, because if it is set for a Monday or Friday vote, it means that supporters might not have the votes, because those aren't considered working and voting days.

"If the announcement comes that it is up for a Monday or Friday, you can say to yourself, we have a few additional problems," Hawaii's premier vote-counter said.

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