$1M will improve
tsunami warnings

Geophysicists want to send out
an alert within 90 seconds of
a Big Isle quake

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center is spending about $1 million during the next year to upgrade staff and equipment with a goal of being able to issue a tsunami bulletin within 90 seconds of a local earthquake.

Scientists estimate a tsunami generated by an earthquake off the southeast coast of the Big Island would hit the Kau coast within five or six minutes and Hilo within 15 minutes. An earthquake off the west coast of the Big Island has the possibility of causing even more damage -- coming ashore on the Kona coast within five or six minutes and the other islands in 15 to 30 minutes.

"You don't have much time," said Charles "Chip" McCreery, geophysicist-in-charge of the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.

The probability of a locally generated tsunami is not high -- perhaps 5 percent in the next 50 years, said University of Hawaii tsunami researcher Gerard Fryer.

But the chances are likely enough that people should be aware, and government and civil defense authorities should prepare for it, he said.

"The consequences of a tsunami from Mauna Loa are so severe, you have to at least consider the problem," Fryer said, noting that there are many new residents, especially on the Kona coast, who might not be aware of the tsunami danger.

There have been two tsunamis generated by earthquakes off the southeast coast of the Big Island during recorded time, Fryer said. There is no history of a tsunami from the west coast of the Big Island, although there are some indications there could have been a tsunami generated from there about 400 years ago.

Even so, the geological conditions on either side of Kilauea and Mauna Loa are similar, and there is no reason why an earthquake and tsunami could not come from the west side, Fryer said.

A tsunami and 7.9-magnitude earthquake in 1868 killed about 40 to 50 people and destroyed villages along the Kau coast. Historical accounts say the tsunami came in higher than the coconut trees.

Another tsunami and 7.6 earthquake offshore of Kalapana killed two people in the Halape campground in 1975 and caused an estimated $1.4 million in damage. The wave generated was more than 40 feet high in Halape, and it wrapped around to Hilo and Kona, where the wave heights were estimated at 5 feet and 8 feet and caused minor damage in the harbors.

Currently, the Tsunami Warning Center can issue a bulletin within two to five minutes of an earthquake anywhere in the Pacific, McCreery said.

Getting the warning time down to 90 seconds locally requires upgrading and setting up new seismographs around the state, hiring new scientists to staff the center 24 hours a day, seven days a week, and some new technology and science.

Fryer said three things must be measured to determine if a local earthquake is likely to generate a tsunami: magnitude, location and depth.

The tsunami has to be big enough -- greater than 6.5 magnitude. Computers can also calculate if the epicenter is offshore and located in a shallow depth likely to move the ocean floor. If those conditions exist, then a tsunami scientist should be able to review the data and get the warning out within 90 seconds, Fryer said.

The center is installing a new network of eight broadband seismometers throughout the state that use digital technology to send more information and more accurate information to the center's computers.

There is no timetable yet to meet the goal of sending a warning within 90 seconds, but the seismometers should be installed and staff will increase from eight to 15 people in the next year, McCreery said.

"The science of doing this has gotten incrementally better over the years, and that's made this possible," McCreery said.

The tsunami center has been pushing to upgrade equipment to be able to provide quicker warnings, but it was not until the Dec. 26 Indian Ocean tsunami that Congress provided the funding to make the 90-second goal possible, McCreery said.

Also in the last year, the center has been able to add a buoy off southern Maui that measures changes in deep water. The new DART (Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis) buoy should be able to confirm if a tsunami was generated by a local earthquake and if it could be headed for the other islands, McCreery said.

Even if the center were able to get a warning out in 90 seconds, members of the public still need to know what to do if they hear warning sirens.

McCreery said he is not sure if people are educated enough about the dangers of a locally generated tsunami.

"I guess I wouldn't say that's common knowledge," he said.

Edward Teixeira, vice director of state civil defense, said he believes most people here know what to do if the tsunami warning sirens sound.

"Local residents, yes," Teixeira said. "They are aware. However, do they tend to forget about it because they live in paradise? Yes."

It has been decades since a major tsunami hit Hawaii, Teixeira said, and there is a need for constant education.

Tourists are a major concern because they have not had that education and might not know what to do, Teixeira said.

There would likely be several hours to educate people and conduct an evacuation from a tsunami generated in the Aleutians or South America.

However, a locally generated tsunami requiring an immediate evacuation would present a "challenge" for civil defense, Teixeira said.

People, especially those on the Big Island, should know that if there is a severe earthquake, they should immediately flee to higher ground regardless of whether the warning sounds, Teixeira said.

"If the ground shakes so severely that you have difficulty standing, then evacuate," he said.