Hawaii’s problem is
often ‘out of sight,
out of mind’

The team had gone undefeated during the regular season with a 28-0 record. The team had the highest attendance of any volleyball team in the nation. People love traveling to Hawaii, especially during months when the weather is chilly on the mainland. Athletes like playing in front of large crowds in contrast to the 300 or so fans that some mainland teams attract. People in Hawaii have good reputations for being gracious hosts to members of visiting teams.

So why did NCAA decision-makers assign the volleyball team to play the first and second rounds of the tournament in Fort Collins, Colorado?

I was watching one of the local TV news shows when the announcement about Fort Collins was made. The television was focused on Coach Dave Shoji, who was clearly expecting that Hawaii would be asked to host the first, second and probably later rounds. At the moment of the announcement, his facial expressions showed extreme disappointment. He could not believe that a rational decision had been made.

I believe that Hawaii is often a victim of a decision making heuristic that might be called, "out of sight, out of mind."

Heuristics are decision-making guidelines that come quickly to mind. If people in Hawaii are tempted to criticize someone in public, the heuristic "don't talk stink" might come to mind. If they think that they can keep information from public knowledge, they might remember that "In Hawaii, a secret is something only 150 people know."

Executives try to be rational, and they often can defend their decisions by pointing to valid sounding criteria. In the volleyball case, they can point to the travel distance to Hawaii, the time that student athletes will be away from their campuses and their classes, and the need to increase the fan base for volleyball in other parts of the country. But there are some facile heuristics that are added into rational deliberations.

One heuristic working against us is that "Hawaii is so far away."

Further, Hawaii does not easily come to mind as decision-makers ponder potential sites for playoff games. Decision makers from the Southwest are familiar with the sites in their own and surrounding states, and so those are the sites that come to mind.

In addition, since Hawaii is far away from the mainland, decision-makers are not likely to encounter irate local coaches and athletic directors. If coaches from Colorado feel snubbed, they can get in their cars and complain to decision-makers from Arizona. In Hawaii, we can't get into cars and drive 500 miles to another state. If we travel by plane, it is very expensive, especially when we have to buy tickets for planes that will be flying during the next two or three days.

To continue with sports analogies, think of a baseball game with a close play at first base during the playoffs. Everyone can see that it was a close play. The umpire calls the runner out. The runner thought he was safe and starts arguing with the umpire. The manager of the team that was at bat runs out and pushes himself between his player and the umpire. The manager argues loudly, uses very visible hand gestures, and may even kick up some dirt. Does he expect the umpire to change his call from "out" to "safe?" No, he just wants to remind the umpire to pay attention to the game and to make sure that his team gets a fair share of the close calls.

In Hawaii, we are not close enough to mainland decision makers to have large numbers of face-to-face disagreements. Thus, executives are not reminded of another heuristic: "These people will be angry if my decision goes against them, and I should make a point of balancing the negative and positive decisions that involve them."