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Big changes offer
glimpse into the future

Much like crabs in a pot of cold water plopped on the stove, you don't realize the big changes until it is too late.

In Hawaii we expect news-free summers. Politicians leave town, schools are out and the University of Hawaii winds down its sports program. Brush fires, miscreants and traffic tragedies are the usual summer fare.

Not so this year. The summer of 2005 will be remembered for three major changes that will reshape the political landscape.

First, housing prices, always in the Hawaiian stratosphere, have soared to a level of irrationality where the median price clocks in at $599,000, a nearly 25 percent increase from last year.

Next, as home prices soar, real estate values rise and, trailing behind like uninvited guests at a picnic, so do property taxes. If you thought property taxes were high last year, wait 'til you see next year's bill.

High property taxes will not go unnoticed, so the canny politician in front of the possible taxpayer backlash will benefit.

Who will be helped by the recent spate of other tax increases is anyone's guess. The biggest increase was the 12.5 percent rate increase in the general excise tax, going from 4 to 4.5 percent in 2007.

The money is for building an Oahu transit system and Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann is its biggest cheerleader. As he rallied the troops for the bill signing last week, Hannemann had everyone sing "Hawaii Aloha" to signify that "We are all in this together."

It was probably more than just coincidence that after suffering through three weeks of sniping by her own GOP colleagues because she didn't veto the tax hike plan, Gov. Linda Lingle came out with a broad wish list of tax cuts and rebates for next year.

But nothing makes you a pariah faster than backing a big tax increase in an election year. What is inspired leadership this year may be the sounding bell for "Abandon ship" in the 2006 elections.

The third big change is flashed in front of us every day as we drive through town. Gas prices are going up, up and up. For 30 years, Democrats in Hawaii have suspected that big oil was making big money selling us gas at artificially inflated prices. Two years ago, they came up with a plan to regulate the price of gas and cut costs.

Critics like Lingle say that simple solutions to complex problems won't work and neither will the Democrats' attempt at rigging the market. Publicly, Lingle is saying, "For the consumer, I hope I am wrong," but privately both Lingle and the Democrats are risking a backlash.

If gas prices tumble, the Democrats win big and will be up one issue in next year's legislative races. If Lingle's predictions come true, the GOP will be able to say, "We told you that Democrats can't be left without adult supervision."

This summer's headlines will make next year's political season all the more interesting.

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