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Poised to take over
for Akaka, just in case

Back in 1999, Linda Lingle, then Hawaii's Republican Party chairwoman, picked the toughest race in the nation.

"The most difficult race in Washington -- running against Sen. Daniel Akaka -- because he's such a nice man," said Lingle.

Hawaii's junior senator, who will be 81 in September, is already mapping out his campaign for re-election next year. For a race that seems mostly won before it ever started, Akaka's future has been a deep well of rumors and political guessing.

Last week banker Walter Dods co-hosted a $2,000-a-ticket cocktail party at the Willows for Akaka. It was populated mostly with Honolulu's business elite, but some union top brass also showed up.

Since Akaka was elected to the U.S. Senate in 1990 in a special election to fill the seat of the late Sen. Spark M. Matsunaga, he has raised just $4.1 million, roughly the same amount that Hillary Clinton collected this year.

Organized labor gives Akaka the biggest portion of his political cash, $732,000 since 1990. But his first Senate race had the big chunk of that labor money, $345,000. Already the state AFL-CIO, representing 70 unions with 90,000 members, has endorsed Akaka.

As of March, Akaka reported having $112,000 in the bank.

For someone whose name rarely appears in print without the adjective "affable" in the same sentence, Akaka's election next year appears likely to be mostly impossible for opponents.

Still, Akaka rumors have revolved around two popular politicians, Lingle and U.S. Rep. Ed Case.

Although Lingle has twice publicly said she is running for re-election and Case says he plans to run for re-election to his 2nd Congressional District seat, speculation has one or both going up against Akaka.

Although Akaka's medical record has more pages in it than he would want (right hip replaced in 2000, right knee replaced in 2001, left knee replaced in 2002, and a skin graft and surgery for an ankle injury in 2004), he looks fit enough for another six-year term.

If Akaka were to either not run or not finish another term, much of Hawaii political establishment stands ready to fill the vacuum. Everyone from Lingle to John Waihee would consider a run for the Senate. Even Hawaii's two congressmen, Case and Rep. Neil Abercrombie, would be interested. If Case and Abercrombie were to go for a Senate seat, the rest of the political class would jump into the fray for a seat in Congress.

But, today there is no opening and no stampede to replace the genial Democrat.

Akaka's colleague and cautious handicapper, U.S. Sen. Dan Inouye says it best.

"I would say he is seen as a shoe-in," Inouye said.

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