Change needs a critical
mass of participants

During the 1980s, cell phones were rare and the few who owned them tolerated a technology that is primitive by today's standards. Today, so many people own cell phones that those who don't are sometimes made to feel like relics from the past.

When I was a teenager, divorce was a rare event and people talked about it in hushed tones. Today, counseling about the possibility of divorce is part of people's preparation for marriage.

Just a few years ago, the music played on American inner city streets was considered primitive and unsophisticated. Today, rap music is the basis of a multimillion dollar industry that markets to all parts of the world.

In his book "The Tipping Point," Malcolm Gladwell analyzed reasons for the move of products and ideas from the status of unknown to the status of widespread acceptance. He used the term "tipping point" to refer to a combination of people, time, and place that acts like a fulcrum.

Imagine a six-foot board balancing on a rock with a sharp point that projects upward. If weight is put on the left side of the board, then it will fall in that direction. If weight is put on the other side, that will be the direction of the board's fall. With products and ideas, one side of the board represents ignorance or indifference. The other side represents public awareness and popularity. What tips the balance from one side to the other?

Gladwell used the language of epidemics in the transmission of disease to analyze the popularization of ideas. One key is that of critical mass. For a flu epidemic to occur, there must be initial carriers who come into contact with other people. Often, these initial carriers have lifestyles that bring them into contact with many other people.

For example, street vendors in a crowed marker might spread the virus. If these newly infected people come into contact with still others who have no resistance to the disease, then the virus may become well established in a population. Given this critical mass, a flu virus can thrive since it can be continually passed from infected people to previously unaffected ones. If there are no new people who might be infected, the flu virus will cease to be a problem in a population and people will forget about it until they hear about the possibility of a new variant.

With concepts such as cell phones, divorce, and rap music, the process is similar in the move from a starting point to widespread awareness and acceptance. There is often a small collection of initial figures, such as popular people who start using portable phones. If these people are pictured using their cell phones in magazines such as People or Entertainment Weekly, this contributes to the reputation that the item is hot. Once these early users spread the message, a second group of people buy and use cell phones. These people are not necessarily well known in a community, but they seem to enjoy and to benefit from the use of their purchases. They spread their experiences by word of mouth to members of their social networks. Once a third wave of people begins to buy the product, a critical mass has been reached. Lots of people have cell phones, and their use generates criticism when beepers go off during movies, church services or delicate passages of music concerts.

Different types of people become involved as ideas and products move from the unknown, through early adoption and the tipping point, and into widespread acceptance. I'll continue the discussion of different people and their roles in next week's column.