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2005 will be crucial
for Lingle as she
maneuvers through
Democratic waters

Governors get only two terms and each one is influenced by a different political agenda. The first term is about getting yourself re-elected, and the second term is about your legacy.

Gov. Linda Lingle this week embarks on the third, and most perilous, year of her first term, with state Democrats already seriously sizing up their chances of denying her a second term and any legacy.

The stunning Republican defeats in the November election resulted in the GOP losing five legislative incumbents. Couple that with Democrats preserving Hawaii as Democratic presidential territory, and Hawaii remains as politically blue as the Pacific Ocean.

Today Lingle's GOP election in 2002 looks more like an anomaly than a trend.

A year ago it seemed that the rhetoric was all running with Lingle. Her calls for "fiscal discipline" meshed with the complaints that the Hawaii Government Employees Association was hurting the budget and the ability to deliver services.

The Democrats in the Legislature were blocking her business reform legislation and spending money they did not have, Lingle complained. She vowed to go to the voters to plead her case.

Since then, the HGEA effectively used Lingle's veto of the white-collar union's pay raise as a potent weapon in the fall elections. Although the Democratically controlled Legislature restored the pay raise, Lingle campaigned against Democrats, warning that they would continue to raid the treasury and roll over for the public unions.

Today Hawaii's economy is a roaring success, but national reports rank Hawaii as still having a poor business climate. Laws proposed by Lingle have failed for two years in a row, and Democrats are predicting that the workers compensation reform measures she will introduce this year will be DOA.

Lingle's education plans fell flat, and she has been forced to recover by claiming her early focus on education forced the Democrats to come up with a school reform plan. Left out of the equation is Pat Hamamoto, the superintendent of education, who helped move the debate by acknowledging the DOE's faults.

As much as the public last year watched to see if the Democrats would get along with the new GOP governor, the focus this year will be on how Lingle will get along with the Democratic super-majority in the House and Senate.

While pay raises for public employees are off this year's radar screen, the state budget will occupy the most attention when the Legislature convenes on Wednesday.

This year's budget is all Lingle's. Her cabinet has spent two years getting ready to defend Lingle's own plans.

The question still to be answered is whether Lingle can propose something popular enough to win both legislative approval and a second term.