U.S. exporters enjoying
benefits of a weak dollar

NEW YORK » You might be having second thoughts about that European vacation because of the weak dollar, but Wall Street doesn't think it's such a bad thing -- at least not for now.

The dollar has lost more than 30 percent of its value against the euro over the last three years, and recently dipped to new lows. It has recovered somewhat from several weeks of selling, and was trading at $1.32 against the euro late yesterday, but still remains weak; analysts say the downward drift is likely to continue in 2005.

Believe it or not, that's good news for many U.S. stocks. While a sharp drop in currency valuations could jeopardize the financial markets by pushing interest rates higher and stock prices lower, the dollar's gradual decline has had mostly positive effects, said Lynn Reaser, chief economist with Banc of America Capital Management. It's made U.S. exports more competitive on the global market and slowed domestic demand for imports. That, combined with a slow rise in interest rates, should help level off the nation's current account deficits, she said.

"At this point, the decline in the dollar is actually, overall, relatively beneficial to the U.S. economy and many of our companies," Reaser said. "In terms of equity investors, they are finding that some of their companies are going to see a significant benefit."

Stocks that stand to make the most gains from a feeble dollar include the major exporters, such as manufacturers and agricultural producers, as well as U.S.-based companies with sizable overseas operations. As their foreign earnings are translated back into dollars, they are likely to enjoy a large currency gain. This is particularly true for the tech sector and consumer staples, such as household products companies, many of which have close to 50 percent of their revenues coming from abroad.

U.S. companies competing on price in foreign markets -- including those in the materials sector, such as steel producers -- are also well-positioned. For example, a U.S. company selling a product in Asia may be able to capture market share from European makers.

And, as a cheaper dollar lures vacationing foreigners to America, domestic lodging providers stand to benefit. This also bodes well for high-end luxury retailers: European and Japanese tourists are likely to splurge on pricey watches, jewelry, handbags and clothes while they're here because in terms of their own currency, these items are less expensive. In addition, U.S. residents who choose to vacation closer to home provide another boost to the domestic economy.

The chief downside of the sliding dollar is the concern that foreign investors might lose their appetite for U.S. Treasurys. If the dollar falls too rapidly in too short a time, foreigners are likely to grow concerned about holding U.S. assets; they may stop buying, or worse, start selling them. But analysts say that seems unlikely at this point.

"A weaker dollar is something that's almost uniformly good for the U.S. as long as it happens in an orderly fashion, and you don't find foreign investors shying away from our bonds, causing interest rates to shoot up," said Jeff Kleintop, chief investment strategist for PNC Financial Services Group in Philadelphia. "If the dollar is weaker and interest rates are low, that's a Goldilocks scenario."

A slowdown in overseas growth may counter some of the positive currency effects, analysts say. While the United States saw its gross domestic product grow during the third quarter at an annual rate of 3.9 percent, according to preliminary readings, Eurozone GDP growth slowed sharply to 0.3 percent, and Japan was nearly flat, rising just 0.1 percent.