Case has 29-point lead
in new poll

Neil Abercrombie also enjoys
a "big" lead over his latest
Republican opponent

Both of Hawaii's incumbent Democratic congressmen enjoy large leads over their Republican challengers heading into the final week before the Nov. 2 general election, according to a new statewide poll conducted for the Star-Bulletin and KITV4 News.

The poll shows Democrat Neil Abercrombie with a 17 percentage-point lead over Republican challenger Dalton Tanonaka in the 1st Congressional District race, and Democrat Ed Case with a 29-point lead over Republican Mike Gabbard in the 2nd Congressional District election.

In the race to represent the 1st Congressional District, urban Honolulu, registered voters who said they are likely to vote in the district election were asked who they would vote for if the election were held today. Of 300 respondents, 52 percent said they would vote for Abercrombie, 35 percent said Tanonaka, 12 percent were undecided and 1 percent picked neither candidate.

The telephone survey was conducted Oct. 17-20 by SMS Research. The margin of error is plus or minus 5.7 percent.

Abercrombie was pleased with the results.

"Always happy to hear the big numbers. Just hope we can sustain them through Election Day," he said.

Tanonaka remains optimistic.

"I think the election will be won in the last week. We will continue to do what we're doing, contrasting the difference between us," Tanonaka said.

In the election for the 2nd Congressional District seat to represent rural Oahu and the neighbor islands, registered voters who said they are likely to vote in the district race were asked whether they would vote for Case or Gabbard if the election were held today. Of 319 people surveyed, 58 percent said they would vote for Case, 29 percent said Gabbard, 12 percent were undecided and 2 percent picked neither candidate.

The percentage total exceeds 100 percent due to the rounding off -- or up in this case -- of fractions. The margin of error for the sample is plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

Case is happy with the size of the base of voters who support him, but would like to build on that base.

"We tried to reach out to the undecided. The challenge now is to reach out to my opponent's base. We will ask the 28 percent to reconsider and give them the other side of the story," Case said.

Gabbard said the poll confirms the feedback he has been getting from voters but also feels the momentum is on his side.

"Our numbers are going up, Case's is going down," Gabbard said. "We are confident that we will bridge the gap by Nov. 2."