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Bainum extends
lead in new poll
The mayoral hopeful
has a 17-point edge
over Mufi Hannemann
Mayoral candidate Duke Bainum is widening his lead over opponent Mufi Hannemann, according to the latest Honolulu Star-Bulletin/KITV 4 News poll.
More than half of the likely voters surveyed said they would vote for Bainum, who has a 17-point lead over Hannemann. Undecided voters totaled 13 percent.
However, a follow-up question on the poll indicates the support for either candidate is not strong and voters could change their minds.
"What this (poll) tells me is we need to work very hard these last days going into the general election and make sure people hear the message and understand and really know Mufi for the leader that he is," said Hannemann campaign spokeswoman Elisa Yadao.
Bainum said that while he's "extremely pleased and excited" about the poll results, there's still a lot of work to do before the election.
"We're not taking anything for granted. We got here because of our volunteers and the hundreds of people that've gone door to door with me, made calls, raised money, waved signs, and we couldn't have gotten here without their help," Bainum said. "We're still days away and we're not slowing down. If anything, this energizes us. If you talk about momentum, this is momentum."
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Yadao said that the Hannemann campaign hopes to build momentum with Tuesday's debate on KITV.
"(The debate) is a venue that really showcases his (Hannemann's) leadership qualities, his experience and his ability to think on his feet," Yadao said. "We've got a debate coming up and we've only gotten started with our television advertising and we've got an organization that's working really, really hard."
The telephone survey was conducted by SMS Research from Oct. 17-20 among 444 Oahu registered voters who are likely to vote in the Nov. 2 election for mayor.
The margin of error is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.
Respondents were asked, "If the election for mayor of Honolulu were held today, would you vote for Duke Bainum or Mufi Hannemann?"
Bainum leads Hannemann in all age groups and most ethnic categories except for native Hawaiians. His support is especially strong among the Caucasians, Filipinos and Chinese.
He also leads among all categories of residents, from newcomers to those who have lived here for 20 years or more. The gap is smallest among those who are lifetime residents, where Bainum leads Hannemann 44 percent to 42 percent.
Hannemann has more support among those who make less than $25,000 a year, while Bainum is stronger in the upper income brackets.
The previous Star-Bulletin/KITV 4 poll taken in late July and early August had the candidates seven percentage points apart -- Bainum at 39 percent and Hannemann at 32 percent -- but former Mayor Frank Fasi was also in the race at that time and had the support of 12 percent of likely voters.
Bainum ended up being the top vote-getter in the Sept. 18 special election with 45 percent of the vote, Hannemann came within three percentage points in the final tally and Fasi garnered 10 percent.
Yadao said that Hannemann campaign hopes to follow the same strategy to come on strong at the end of the campaign.
She said other polls she's seen show the race as being much closer.
"Regardless of what the polls show you, when we were coming into the primary election, we were pretty much in the same position and managed to make great strides," Elisa Yadao said. "We're confident that that's going to happen this time"
The latest campaign spending reports filed on Friday showed that spending in the mayor's race has passed the $5 million mark.
"This time we are even more frankly strapped for cash than we were the last time. We had to hold our money for the big push at the end," Yadao said.
Bainum said the poll numbers validate his message of positive change built on integrity.
"Clearly we have a strategy to continue our momentum and to continue on this positive track," he said.
