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Sidelines Kalani Simpson |
Second guesses can
start nowTHE annual Western Athletic Conference preseason media football poll was due this week and, after some nervous deliberation, my ballot was faxed in a couple of hours late.
Why the anxiety? Because making predictions is a fool's errand. It is the smart man who simply waits until everything is decided, then strolls up and says, "Yeah, I knew that."
So last year I was humiliated accordingly, of course. I predicted, and was publicly wrong. Again. But people (many of whom were openly stunned that they give a guy like me a vote on this) seemed to appreciate having something in July to bat around -- especially the local attorney/Boise State fan who sent a pre-emptive "nanny-nanny boo-boo" fax.
You will remember that last year I picked Hawaii to win the WAC title. This was fine until the season actually started, and a few things started going wrong for the shark tooth-H guys, and I became one of the people in the media with an agenda to make UH look bad by setting it up to fail against unrealistic expectations.
Really.
But not to worry. This year I will help out as one of the guys who doesn't believe in us, which lets UH use my idiocy as motivation. That's cool. Just send me an Xbox at the end of the season.
So here we go. Despite all the horrible things I've said about the conference in the past, it looks like the WAC might be a much improved football league this season. Brace yourselves:
» 1) Tulsa. Admittedly, this is a dark-horse, long-shot pick (especially since there's often a letdown coming off a Cinderella season). But I was bowled over by the game plan against UH last year -- its design, its execution, everything. I think Steve Kragthorpe is the real deal as a coach. Simply put, I trust these guys. James Kilian is not flashy, but definitely the kind of QB you can count on. And they've got a lot of people -- including both corners -- coming back. I'll take the risk and pick 'em.
» 2) Boise State. Even with all they've lost, it's tough to not put these guys in first place. Again, it's a trust thing, a history. Boise State just wins. Never lets down. Most teams have a bad game here or there, drop one or two -- but BSU buried people, took care of business, won where it was supposed to, never underachieved. You can't underestimate what that says about a program. Losing QB Ryan Dinwiddie is big, true. But talking about how much talent Boise State has lost? What talent? This is a system.
» 3) Fresno State. Wow. Putting a team with this much talent -- and 19 returning starters -- third? Tough. But the conference is getting better. And the Bulldogs open at Washington and at Kansas State. And they always look good on paper, but always drop a key game or two. And there's that look on Pat Hill's face after UH scored last year on a fake punt to break 50 points with 4:28 to go (well, as I wrote that night, he looked like he needed a hug) ...
» 4) Hawaii. Yikes. Block my e-mail. Hey, I agree with June Jones that UH's defense will be better than most people think. In fact, I think Hawaii is going to be pretty good, get another Hawaii Bowl bid. But here it is: UH is unbeatable at home late in the year, and wins a game or two it probably should lose. The flip side there is Hawaii has sputtered at times these last few years in early to midseason -- and tends to lose a game or two it shouldn't. And those are often WAC games. Last season UH beat Alabama ... and finished fourth.
» 5) Rice. Steady. Not great, but almost always steady. And this year Ken Hatfield has a quarterback who got a lot of key experience last season. Watch out for that option.
» 6) Nevada. Hmmm. The return of Chris Ault. Obviously, I don't think these guys will set the world on fire. But Nevada should be dangerous if you're not ready for them. Tough cowboy RB Chance Kretschmer is back for his senior season.
» 7) Louisiana Tech. Love RB Ryan Moats. Love an intact offensive line. Love eight starters back on defense. Admit it, you always expect the Bulldogs to be good, but they've disappointed for much of their time in the WAC. The schedule -- at Miami, at Tennessee, at Auburn -- is going to hurt these guys before they even get started.
» 8) Southern Methodist. I like this coach. He seems to have a good heart (raising his kids after his wife was killed when she was struck by lightning) and a great sense of humor (he was upset at Texas Christian for leaving Conference USA ... five minutes after SMU left the WAC). But 3-21 in two years doesn't look good. Maybe his recruiting will kick in ...
» 9) UTEP. Everybody thinks former Washington State and (briefly) Alabama coach Mike Price is going to have instant impact. Well, he's going to love coaching in the WAC, I will say that. But this year's conference season should be tougher than most. I say not quite instant.
» 10) San Jose State. OK ... it's unfair to judge these coaches on the one game I watched them go against UH. But last year's 13-10 loss to Hawaii (butchering the clock at the end, failing to account for Travis LaBoy) was brutal.
Well, there it is. These picks are good for another five minutes, after which I will disavow all knowledge of them. Please keep in mind that: a) these are for entertainment purposes only; and b) I am an idiot. You would have to be to put your predictions in print.
See the Columnists section for some past articles.
Kalani Simpson can be reached at ksimpson@starbulletin.com