With supporters behind him, Rep. Mike Magaoay (D, Waialua-Laie) filed his nomination papers with Lori Tomczyk on July 8 at the state election office.
N. Shore invites
political changeNew demographics make it
a bellwether district for GOP
aims to control the House
Hawaii's established communities from Kaneohe to Kahuku have grown older, and new subdivisions such as Kapolei and Kihei have popped up. As the generations age, the political power of young middle-class voters is challenging the influence of older, traditional ethnic voting blocks.
And observers say the once liberal, social Democrat bastion of Hawaii is becoming conservative.
Tomorrow
>> Why the long-dominant Hawaii Democratic Party is losing power.
Pollster Don Clegg said his research shows Hawaii voters are now "just to the right of center" in their political thinking.
All those changes are crashing like winter waves on Oahu's North Shore.
Anchored by the two plantation towns of Waialua and Kahuku, the North Shore's 46th House District is a postcard of old Hawaii, but changes in the makeup make it a bellwether district for what Republicans hope will be a shift in political power this fall.
The shift is critical because Republican Gov. Linda Lingle has set out to win control of the state House by gaining 11 GOP seats. The last time the Republicans wielded the gavel in the House was just before the 1954 so-called Democratic Revolution that ushered in the Democrats as the majority party in power.
What was once 12,000 acres billed as "Home of the World's Best Sugar" has been replaced by three-story mansions on gentleman farms, diversified agriculture and even polo ponies.
"In Waialua, you have a plantation town with no plantation," said Neal Milner, University of Hawaii political scientist. "The plants have been replaced with people."
As plantation towns Waialua and Kahuku wither, areas around them lure new people into the country. The Mokuleia Beach area, for instance, now boasts homes that could grace the cover of Home and Garden magazine.
The area along Sunset Beach is also the scene of new development.
While newcomers add vitality, they do not know or remember community traditions, including political traditions, according to Milner. Without the established social networks, he said, new political forces can come in "without having to replace the established political tradition."
"Those are going to be the real battlegrounds," Milner said.
Carol Philips, a Republican in the North Shore House race, talked with Robert North on his front porch while campaigning house to house along Achiu Lane in Haleiwa earlier this month.
Rep. Mike Magaoay, a two-term Democrat and Waialua hometown boy, inherited the political operation of a former Democrat in 2000 and won in Waialua and Kahuku.But professional bodyboarder and community activist Carol Philips, now an aide to Lingle, came within 254 votes of beating Magaoay in 2002, with a campaign she and Lingle both call "hurried and underfunded."
Republican Philips, 37, and Magaoay, 50, will duel again in the expected Nov. 2 general election rematch.
A no-nonsense, understated former neighborhood board chairman, Magaoay had been Rep. Alex Santiago's campaign manager.
When the veteran Democrat unexpectedly decided not to run for re-election, Santiago asked Magaoay to fill in.
Supporters of Santiago transferred their allegiance to the new Democrat. Magaoay's hometown of Waialua sports dozens of yard signs supporting their favorite son.
Marcie Kalilao, who was born in Waialua and now lives in neighboring Haleiwa, noted, "Most of those in my neighborhood are for Philips, because where I live is where all the surfers are.
"But I am for Mike," Kalilao added. "I have his sign in my yard. He is my countryman and I have known him from young time."
Last week, Philips campaigned in Kalilao's neighborhood, facing at least one closed door.
"The lady was knocking on my door last night, but my daughter said, 'Mom, I don't know her,' and she did not open it," Kalilao said.
While Magaoay inherited the supporters of the former Democratic representative, Philips found the coattails of Lingle encouraging two years ago.
Lingle and Philips both won three of the seven precincts in the area -- Pupukea, Turtle Bay and Kahuku -- and portions of Laie.
The difference, however, was in absentee ballots. Lingle carried the absentee balloting, but Philips fell short by 150 votes.
Philips, who grew up in Kahuku and the North Shore and graduated from West Oahu College, became interested in politics after watching developers win an unpopular land use decision.
"The entire community was against it; still, the developer won," Philips said of the development of 19 acres near Sunset Beach that residents had hoped to turn into the Velzyland park.
"Everyone wanted it to be a park, everyone said it would be a park and then it wasn't. Wait a minute, this isn't right," Philips said.
Robert North, a Philips supporter who has lived for 31 years in Haleiwa, said population pressures make the district "bulge at the seams."
"We don't want to see it get developed like Mililani," North said, surveying his dead-end road of colorfully decorated World War II-vintage Quonset huts with taro and lotus ponds.
The issues Philips wants to address are housing, jobs and preserving agriculture land; the district contains some of Oahu's prime plantation and farming lands.
With an environmental and activist background, Philips could easily be a Democratic candidate, not a Republican, but she said the GOP under Lingle is different.
"If you want to get involved in politics and make things happen, the Republican Party is the ticket. The Democrats would just look and say, 'You're a haole girl, it's not going to happen,'" Philips said.
Both candidates also face challenges of dealing with ethnic differences.
In Hawaii politics, ethnicity and how you relate to the voters is critical.
Sen. Colleen Hanabusa, a Waianae Democrat, noted in an interview that locals vs. outsiders is a genuine political issue.
"You see in many races that card being played, best subtly, but sometimes not subtly," Hanabusa said.
Magaoay acknowledged that when he campaigns in areas that he did not win in 2002, such as Kahuku and Sunset, he must acknowledge differences.
With more than half of Laie residents either Hawaiian or Polynesian, according to the 2000 Census, Magaoay said he has learned to be a listener.
"With Polynesian communities, it is a nurturing thing," he said. "You have to gain their trust and go slowly.
To shore up his support in the area, Magaoay has made several campaign appearances, including one with U.S. Sen. Dan Inouye.
Philips said she has been well-received in varied neighborhoods.
"Once you open your mouth and start speaking, then it is easy," Philips said.
"People want to make sure you are from here," she said. "I can say I have lived here since I was 3, and I am a local girl, and then they don't care about the color of my skin."
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Battle for House control
heats up in 10 districts
The prize is control of the state House in 2005, but the battle will be fought one vote at a time in the small races for each of the 51 House districts.
Gov. Linda Lingle wants her Republican Party in charge of the House, which means going from 15 to 26 GOP members. If she cannot win the House outright, Lingle says she would like to bring the number to at least 18, which would be enough to sustain her vetoes and force the majority Democrats to negotiate with her instead of overriding her vetoes.
Here's a look at some of the hot House races and the major candidates:
District 3 (Hilo-Glenwood)
Incumbent: Not running, but Democratic Rep. Eric Hamakawa's political supporter, Clifton Tsuji, a former Hilo banker, is.
Challenger: Andy Smith, back after losing to Hamakawa in 2002. He benefits from being Lingle's East Hawaii coordinator and has been steadily campaigning since his defeat two years ago.
District 14 (Hanalei-Kapaa)
Incumbent: Democratic Rep. Hermina Morita, a progressive liberal who pushed the bottle bill through the Legislature.
Challenger: Republican Mamo Cummings, president of the Kauai Chamber of Commerce, strongly supported by the Hawaii GOP.
District 24 (Manoa)
Incumbent: Democratic Rep. Kirk Caldwell, finishing his first term. Caldwell is an attorney, strongly supported by U.S. Sen. Dan Inouye.
Challenger: Republican Nadine Nishioka, back after running and losing in 2002. The usually Democratic Manoa is expected to be more conservative and Republican.
District 25 (Tantalus-Makiki)
Incumbent: Democratic Rep. Brian Schatz has become a leader and influential member in the House and with young Democrats.
Challenger: Tracy Okubo, a young Republican who has won the party's support for the race in a swing district.
District 33 (Aiea-Halawa)
Incumbent: Democratic Rep. Blake Oshiro, vice chairman of the Judiciary Committee, considered one of the strong liberals in the House.
Challenger: Gerald Coffee, who spent seven years in a North Vietnamese prisoner of war camp as a Navy pilot. A motivational speaker and popular conservative here and on the mainland.
District 41 (Waipahu-Waikele)
Incumbent: Democratic Rep. Jon Karamatsu, freshman House member.
Challenger: Republican Rito Saniatan, who ran against Karamatsu in 2002 as a Democrat.
District 43 (Ewa Beach)
Incumbent: Democratic Rep. Romy Mindo, a legislative newcomer. Former president of Local 5 of the Hotel Employees and Restaurant Employees union.
Challenger: Republican Kymberly Pine, head of GOP research in the House, strongly backed by the GOP and Lingle.
District 45 (Waianae-Makua)
Incumbent: Democratic Rep. Maile Shimabukuro, an articulate young attorney.
Challenger: Republican Glenn Kila, school principal and former Democrat with strong connections in the community.
District 46 (Schofield-Kahuku)
Incumbent: Democratic Rep. Mike Magaoay, an electrical engineer who grew up in Waialua.
Challenger: Republican Carol Philips, making her second race against Magaoay.
District 51 (Lanikai-Waimanalo)
Incumbent: Democratic Rep. Tommy Waters, attorney, House freshman considered one of the bright new Democratic leaders.
Challenger: Republican Wilson Ho, former Democrat and longtime Waimanalo Neighborhood Board member, community leader and banker.
