Forecasters gather
to refine warningsTimely briefings on climatic data
can help Pacific island nations
Six years ago, shared research among Pacific island states on the climatic phenomenon El Nino prompted the government of Palau to take preventive measures to protect its water supply during the rainy season.
The decision to raise the water level of the island nation's dam paid off during the El Nino, when shifts in Pacific Ocean temperatures raise and lower sea levels, cause droughts and stir up severe storms.
"Even though they had to go on water restrictions, they did not have to ship in water to survive the El Nino," said Eileen Shea, a climate and environmental specialist with the East-West Center.
Now, after more than a decade of research on El Nino, researchers are gathering in Honolulu starting yesterday to comb through the data and try to develop forecasting models that may help other Pacific island communities better prepare for weather disasters.
"It's a chance to reflect back on the first decade of operations," Shea said yesterday. "We're interested in helping to facilitate the emergence of a long-term, sustained information service."
Since 1992, Shea has worked with climate specialists, meteorologists, government officials, academics and others from Hawaii to Australia through a partnership known as the Pacific ENSO Applications Center, analyzing data on El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) atmospheric conditions.
The goal is to provide island communities with information to plan for climate change and weather events such as hurricanes and typhoons that can hurt island economies, agriculture, infrastructure and overall development.
Such weather events are more likely in an El Nino year, Shea said.
An El Nino occurs every four to seven years, when a change in the equatorial wind pattern causes warmer waters of the western Pacific to move eastward, Shea said.
"When you move areas of warm waters, you move areas where it rains, you move areas where it's cloudy, you change storm patterns," Shea said.
Hurricanes Iwa and Iniki, which ravaged Hawaii in 1982 and 1992, happened during El Nino years.
Currently, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientists are predicting "ENSO neutral conditions" (neither El Niño nor La Niña) through July.
Research paid off during the 1997-98 El Nino cycle when Palau and other Pacific island governments were better able to prepare for their rainy seasons.
"For 10 years, we've seen Pacific island governments, communities, resource managers, everyone use forecasts of El Nino to support decision making," Shea said. "We're doing a thorough review of what we've learned. What can we do better?"
The three-day conference brings together representatives from Pacific regions including Hawaii, Guam, Palau, the Marshall Islands, American Samoa, New Zealand, Australia, Fiji and the Federated States of Micronesia.
Pacific ENSO Applications Center:
lumahai.soest.hawaii.edu/Enso/index.html