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Markets to scrutinize
high-tech earnings,
outlook in week ahead
NEW YORK » The Nasdaq composite index, already bruised from a month of rocky trading, may see more volatility after bellwethers including Intel, IBM, Apple Computer and Sun Microsystems release earnings reports in the coming week.
Investors want to see if the companies miss, match or power past Wall Street's expectations, but analysts say outlooks are what will really drive trading. With hiring up and profits rising across market sectors, technology companies are poised to benefit from a surge in capital spending as businesses expand.
"This is the quarter of no excuses," said Martin Reynolds, vice president of research firm Gartner Inc. "You really should be looking pretty good, because if you're not, there is something fundamentally wrong."
Earnings for companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 are forecast to rise between 17 percent and 20 percent on average, and with a few exceptions, most tech companies are expected to fare well. The first quarter is typically slow for chip stocks, but analysts predict most semiconductor companies will meet expectations.
Leading the group is Intel Corp., the world's largest maker of computer chips and one of only two Nasdaq stocks in the Dow Jones industrials. The other tech stock in the Dow, Microsoft Corp., will release earnings April 22.
Intel, which will announce results Tuesday, is expected to deliver profits of 27 cents per share on revenues of $8.2 billion, according to a consensus estimate of analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call.
That's at the high end of Intel's own revenue estimate, which the company tightened last month, citing declining demand for its products. A buildup in notebook computer inventories could temporarily dent first-quarter returns, analysts said, but the company's 2004 outlook remains strong.
Intel is ramping up production of a new Pentium 4 chip and updating a server processor to better compete with a similar product from the No. 2 microprocessor provider, Advanced Micro Devices, which is to report results Wednesday. The consensus estimate for AMD is earnings of 3 cents per share on revenues of $1.2 billion.
Though AMD is nowhere near catching up with Intel, analysts have been impressed by its performance and some believe it could offer some upside surprise this quarter.
"Intel is the 800-pound gorilla and AMD is the scrappy competitor," said Rob Schafer, an analyst with technology researcher Meta Group. "But if you think of what AMD is doing, in challenging Intel with its server processor, it's quite impressive."
Soaring demand for Apple Computer's iPod and iPod mini digital music players has heightened anticipation for its results Wednesday. The company is expected to post earnings of 10 cents a share on sales of $1.8 billion. Computers remain core to Apple's business, however, and analysts will be watching those sales figures closely.
Intel, AMD, Apple and other hardware companies such as IBM Corp., which reports profits Thursday, are benefiting from a favorable dollar-euro exchange rate as tech spending rises in Europe. IBM is expected to earn 93 cents per share on revenues of $21.9 billion.
Texas Instruments, whose chips power more than half the world's mobile phones, raised its profit and sales forecasts last month because of strong demand. But there are fears it could suffer setbacks following a recent sales warning from Nokia, the world's biggest cell phone maker.
TI's earnings, set for Wednesday, are expected to come in at 21 cents per share on revenues of $3.2 billion.
There's a great deal of skepticism about the long-term outlook for Sun Microsystems Inc., which is to announce results Thursday. Despite an agreement with Microsoft to increase the compatibility of their hardware and operating systems, uncertainty remains about the viability of Sun's Unix business, and several analysts recently downgraded the company.
The struggling computer and software maker says it expects to report a net loss between 23 and 25 cents a share on $2.65 billion in revenue. Analysts had projected a loss of 7 cents per share on $2.66 billion revenue.
The Dow Jones industrials ended the week down 28.56, or 0.3 percent, at 10,442.03. The Standard & Poor's 500 index slipped 2.49, or 0.2 percent, to close at 1,139.32.
The Nasdaq dropped 4.29, or 0.2 percent, during the week, closing Thursday at 2,052.88.
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