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Digital Slob Curt Brandao |
File-swappers like
the odds of getting suedThe music industry, it seems, is in a period of loss. The King of Pop is losing face in court again, a face now so surgically enhanced it has the spongy consistency of a Contour Pillow.
The Recording Industry Association of America is losing its fight against file-swappers, holding up a can of Raid to fend off a cloud of locusts.
Even Beyonce has lost her last name.
But amid all these setbacks, the RIAA seems determined to pursue a suicidal business model for music: Discover, sign, produce, publicize, distribute, sue. It's betting the farm that the scare tactics of 532 more lawsuits filed against swappers, ID'd only by their IP addresses (I wonder what nickname they'll give 28.161.149.19 in the joint?) will shoo them all away like flocks of crows from a cornfield. But to be really scared, you'd have to be a music pirate so number-impaired you can't tell 311 from 10,000 Maniacs.
For example, statistics show that planes are very safe, yet people still fear flying because every shattered, flaming fuselage gets blanket coverage on CNN. The RIAA knows fear responds to publicity, not mathematical probabilities. Otherwise, no one would buckle their seat belts and Howard Dean would still be the Democratic front-runner.
"The message to illegal file sharers should be as clear as ever," RIAA president Cary Sherman said last week. Apparently, after about 1,000 lawsuits sprinkled among 60 million pirates, that message is "share music and there's a 0.00167 percent chance you'll be sued."
For perspective, you'd have a slightly better chance -- about 0.002 percent -- of winning "American Idol," and a much, much bigger chance -- almost 1 percent -- of being audited. So, clearly, the chances of being sued for pirating are more remote than having your 2003 receipts combed over by Ruben Studdard.
Still, the "shame offensive" is having some effect. The Pew Internet & American Life Project reports that only 14 percent of computer users pirate music, down from 29 percent last spring. Impressive, but that's a phone survey. Maybe pirates are changing their ways, or maybe over the summer 15 percent figured out if you're going to steal, it's probably also a good idea to lie about it on the telephone.
Contrast that methodology with The NPD Group, which studied actual computer use. It reports file sharing rose 6 percent in October, 7 percent in November -- creeping up. So, time for a new round of lawsuits.
Legally, the RIAA is right, of course. But imagine if a shop owner "invented" the apple. Then kids stole one, took the seeds, and planted apple trees in a field. Pretty soon, no one needed to buy apples anymore. Could the shop owner sue? Sure. But rather than be victimized by his own success, it might be better business to just shrug it off and tap back into apple-loving appetites by selling caramel-coated candy apples instead.
Likewise, music can always be glazed with the sticky sweetness of commerce. Never mind CD sales; put Eminem in that same field with a mic and a speaker. Soon word would spread and thousands would be on hand to listen, followed by Port-O-Potties and vendors selling pretzels, falafels and water for $5 a bottle, all eventually deposited back into said Port-O-Potties (this is called "trickle down economics").
Who knows, maybe one day the RIAA will wise up, stop feeding lawyers cash, and expend resources in a more noble pursuit, like getting Beyonce's last name back.
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Curt Brandao is the Star-Bulletin's production editor. Reach him at: cbrandao@starbulletin.com