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On Politics Richard Borreca |
How to survive
a campaign year
that starts ... now!Congratulations, we have made it. As we enter November, this officially becomes an election year. One year from now will be Election Day 2004.
With an expectant eye cast to the upcoming year, and apologies to W. Bruce Cameron, here are eight simple rules for enjoying the 2004 elections.
>> Rule No. 1: Don't believe the polls in the last month of a campaign. Hawaii's voters are traditionally a secretive lot and by Labor Day they start hedging their bets. While other voters are using the last two months of a campaign to finally make a decision, Hawaii voters are officially streaming to the "undecided column."
>> Rule No. 2: Expect to shake Governor Lingle's hand before this year is out. The perpetual campaign of 2000 has not slowed her one bit. The hard practice of delivering two or three speeches a day has only built endurance. If she doesn't meet you at a "talk story" or fun run or community banquet, watch for her at a baby luau down the block.
>> Rule No. 3: The economy is always a rallying cry. If, as expected, Hawaii's economy does take off, watch for a dog fight as Republicans and Democrats argue why all good news is due to their accomplishments. If the economy falters, expect Republican and Democrats to patiently explain that local government has little control over the economy.
>> Rule No. 4: That's U.S. Rep. Ed Case who wants to shake your hand as soon as he gets back from overseas. The peripatetic first-term Democrat from Hawaii's rural 2nd congressional district already has made trips to Israel and Iraq and held talk-story sessions in most of the school cafeterias in his district.
>> Rule No. 5: Don't be awed by those political titles. Today's City Council chairman may be bounced down to head the park committee next week; and the Legislature doesn't grant tenure either. Political loyalty in the 21st century rarely lasts more than a single political season.
>> Rule No. 6: Money still counts. If you want to know who is going to win a political race, count the money. Not always, but most of the time, the one with the most wins. Former Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono spent $2.3 million in her losing campaign to Lingle, who won with $5.4 million.
>> Rule No. 7: Do not expect any political courtesy this year. If losing the governor's race was a major shock to Hawaii's Democrats, then losing control of the Legislature would be the myocardial infarction of local politics. Both sides will play for keeps, with the mean season starting with the Legislature's opening gavel.
>> Rule No. 8: Do not despair. No matter who wins, we will survive. Hawaii has persevered through Richard Nixon, Frank Fasi and Ben Cayetano; we can handle it.
See the Columnists section for some past articles.
Richard Borreca writes on politics every Sunday in the Star-Bulletin. He can be reached at 525-8630 or by e-mail at rborreca@starbulletin.com.
