STAR-BULLETIN FILE
Mainland visitors to the islands increased last month but Japanese arrivals continued to slump.
No September
to remember:
Visitor arrivals
slow to trickleOahu is the only island to
post a gain as the number of
tourists increase just 1.3%
Hawaii's tourism industry had a quiet September, though Japanese arrivals have come back to near-2002 levels from the depths seen after the war with Iraq, and the outlook is positive.
State visitor arrivals rose 1.3 percent to 471,000 from 464,974 in the same month last year, with a 3.4 percent increase in domestic arrivals and a 2.6 percent decrease in international arrivals, according to figures released yesterday by the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism.
Domestic arrivals were up for the sixth month in a row, but did not hit a monthly record as seen in July and August. Also, because of shorter trips than last year, total travel time in Hawaii, calculated as visitor days, decreased 4.5 percent from last year.
"We're OK," said Bank of Hawaii chief economist Paul Brewbaker. "It caps a pretty good quarter."
In a switch, Oahu was the only island to have more visitors than it had last year, with a 2 percent increase driven by U.S. mainland travel. Maui arrivals fell 3.9 percent, Big Island arrivals were down 2.9 percent, Kauai arrivals fell 4.3 percent and Molokai arrivals were flat. Oahu visitor counts had been down since February.
Arrivals from the state's top two markets, the U.S. West and U.S. East, were up 4.6 percent in September, and represented nearly two out of three of Hawaii's visitors. Strength in Hawaii's domestic market is a good sign, considering the United States went to war with Iraq this year, Brewbaker said.
Larger travel trends indicate that Hawaii is weathering a weak year fairly well, and that better times may lie ahead.
International air traffic to the United States is expected to be down 4.3 percent this year from 2002, and down 21.2 percent from 2000, the banner travel year, according to the Office of Travel and Tourism Industries of the U.S. International Trade Administration.
Arrivals from Japan, Hawaii's largest international market, were cut 30 percent to 40 percent earlier this year by severe acute respiratory system. In September, Japanese arrivals improved to a 1.3 percent decrease from last year, but are still well below pre-Sept. 11 levels.
Hawaii is beating other destinations in terms of airline travel demand. Hawaii arrivals last month increased more than the overall miles flown by paying passengers, which was flat, according to the Air Transport Association of America.
Hawaii's visitor spending increased 6.2 percent in the first eight months of the year, according to the latest data available from the state. U.S. West spending is up 12.4 percent, U.S. East spending has risen 10.1 percent, while Japanese spending has been down 14.5 percent.
September air traffic for Japan Airlines to Hawaii was down 5 percent from the year before, but October is looking to be up 5 percent, said Gilbert Kimura, spokesman. It's still not clear if JAL will restore Hawaii flights this year, he said. The carrier has forecast a $391 million company loss through March 2004, and cut a slew of unprofitable flights to the islands from regional areas of Japan.
"We got hurt and to face to future, they have to reevaluate everything," Kimura said.
The U.S. tourism outlook for 2004 through 2006 is brighter, with average annual arrival growth pegged at 5 percent, according to the OTTI, though the fastest growth is expected from India, Austria, Denmark, Finland and the United Kingdom, which are small markets for Hawaii.
In 2005, overall visitor spending will surpass the record set in 2000, according to the Travel Industry Association of America.
The state predicts Hawaii visitor spending will rise 5.6 percent this year to a record $10.56 billion, then rise another 7.8 percent next year to $11.4 billion.
The U.S. economy is expected to have improved in the third quarter. The yen has strengthened and recently traded as high as 108.29 per dollar, its strongest since November 2000, boosting Japanese spending power in Hawaii. However, Japan's economy will probably expand a median 1.5 percent in the year ending March 31, 2005, according to 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Hotel and resort condominiums across the state were 5.6 percent fuller in September than last year, with 69.7 percent average occupancy compared with 66 percent in the year earlier, according to a survey released yesterday by PKF-Hawaii. Room revenue, an important hotel financial indicator, rose 10.7 percent to $92.70 from $83.77.
"September's increase is the third consecutive monthly increase for 2003, continuing the strong showing from the summer months," said Ernest Watari, PKF-Hawaii chief executive.
Oahu occupancy rose to 74 percent from 69.6 percent last year, Maui occupancy increased to 66.9 percent from 62.3 percent, Kauai occupancy was up to 72.3 percent from 70.8 percent and Big Island rooms were up to 61.9 percent from 60 percent.
The highest average occupancy was in North Kauai, at 86.2 percent.
There were mixed signs in Hawaii's small travel segments.
Business travel to Hawaii was up 23.4 percent in September, to 27,484 visitors from 22,268 last year, with strength in conventions and corporate meetings.
"We are also very pleased to see the strong performance of the domestic MCI (meetings, conventions and incentive) market," said state Tourism Liaison Marsha Wienert. "Contributing to this month's growth were several events held at the Hawaii Convention Center and increased bookings at the individual properties."
The number of cruise ship passengers was down 34.9 percent to 15,704 from 24,112 last year, though the number has increased 10 percent in the year to date.
Canadian visitor arrivals were down 7 percent in September to 7,438 from 8,000 last year.
