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Pacific Perspective Robert Doktor |
Business of war, fight
against terrorism rest
with control of oil reserves"Follow the money" was the passkey phase that opened to the view of the world the mystery and motives of that small but significant interlude of American history called Watergate.
Often, in all phases of life, public and private, a rigorous accounting of the sources and uses of funds can lead to insights not only of who did what, but also -- and often more interestingly -- what their reasoning was as to why they did thus. So, what they may have thought might be the likely consequences of their actions.
This tried and true analysis may be useful in understanding the case of this current business of war in Iraq.
Why Iraq; why now; and how is this linked to terrorism, to 9/11, and to Osama?
Let's follow the money! The terrorists of 9/11 had a great deal of money. Without such plentiful financial resources, the training camps, the equipment, the travel funds, even the flying lessons are all unlikely to have occurred. And where did this money come from? Mostly, it came from selling oil. Not directly, but not very indirectly, either.
Some of the money came from the wealth of the terrorists themselves. Wealth they achieved by working for, and in service to, the main Middle Eastern regimes that receive the revenue from the sale of oil.
Other funds were given freely by high rollers in these regimes for what was billed as humanitarian or religious services. In most cases, the donors did not give the terrorists funds to be terrorists; rather the funds were given for more noble services. But audit of the actual expenditures of those funds was unprofessional at best, and was a dark wink and a smile at worst.
So how to bring discipline to the sources and uses of funds in places like Saudi Arabia and other oil rich states? How to make sure they do not allow funds to flow to terrorists? Grab them where you can really get their attention!
Iraq sits above some of the largest oil reserves on the planet. Control those reserves and you have the attention of all the Middle Eastern oil regimes. Why, because he who controls such vast reserves can fundamentally sway the quantity and therefore the price of oil on the world market.
And the price of oil greatly influences the flow of funds to all oil exporting nations. A 20 percent drop in price with constant costs of goods sold will have a devastating effect upon oil revenues. And there is enough oil under Iraq to be able to exert that kind of control for at least the next two decades.
The Bush family is well connected to the oil fraternity in Texas. The elder Bush was a successful entrepreneur in the oil business before his political career. The younger Bush benefited greatly from Texas oil support in his governorship of Texas, and in his presidential campaign. Vice President Dick Cheney also has a strong heritage in and around the oil industry. These people know oil and they know the economics of oil.
It is not unlikely that they believe that control of Iraq oil through a very friendly government in Iraq will greatly delimit the sources of funds to all terrorists, not only from Iraq, but also from all oil exporting regimes. And they are probably right.
Robert Doktor is professor of management and director of the International Management Doctoral Program at the University of Hawaii.