Tourism estimates lowered
The state authority drops
projections of visitor arrivals
and spending
The state Hawaii Tourism Authority has lowered its marketing targets for statewide tourism spending this year to $10.35 billion from $11.1 billion, a result of a recent drop in Japanese arrivals and a nearly $1 billion negative revision to estimated visitor spending in 2001.
The state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism has lowered its estimate of 2001 visitor spending to $9.2 billion from an earlier estimate of $10.1 billion, according to draft data obtained by the Star-Bulletin. The revision is a result of the state's changes to the way it calculates spending, including the weighting of data.
The changed lowered 2001 spending primarily because the state began to weigh the length of people's trips. "People stay longer, they spend less," per day, said Eugene Tian, branch chief of tourism research at the state business department.
On a positive note, visitor spending rose 6.7 percent last year to $9.82 billion, despite a 3 percent decrease in Japanese arrivals, according to preliminary DBEDT data. Visitor spending is considered to be the best indicator of the performance of Hawaii's No. 1 industry, tourism.
The Japanese remained Hawaii's biggest individual spenders, by far, with the average person spending $232 a day in 2002, a 2.2 percent increase from $227 in 2001. But the decrease in Japanese arrivals brought total Japanese spending down 2.9 percent in 2002 to $2.03 billion from $2.09 billion in 2001, according to DBEDT.
U.S. West visitors spent a total $3.51 billion in 2002, up 11.1 percent from $3.16 billion in the year before. Spending from the U.S. East rose 8.6 percent to $2.77 billion from $2.55 billion. On the whole, spending by visitors from the United States mainland made up nearly two-thirds of total spending in 2002.
Meanwhile, Canadian spending dropped 15.7 percent to $260.8 million from $309.2 million.
The marketing committee of the Hawaii Tourism Authority discussed the data yesterday in a public meeting. The authority revised its marketing targets after reviewing state visitor arrival data from the first three months of 2003.
A total 1.56 million visitors came to Hawaii in the first quarter, down 9.3 percent from 1.72 million in the same period in 2001, though up from 1.53 million in 2002. Japanese arrivals were down 23 percent in the first quarter from 2001.
Since then, arrivals from Japan have worsened, not only because of the war with Iraq, but also SARS and the weak Japanese economy. Arrivals this month from Japan are down 42 percent from May 2002, according to preliminary state data.
The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization has predicted that Japanese visitor arrivals this year will fall 8.6 percent from last year, bringing overall Hawaii arrivals down 1.3 percent. That would mean a total of 1.35 million Japanese will visit Hawaii in 2003, down from 1.48 million arrivals last year, and down a quarter from 1.82 million in 2000. That's bound to be felt in Waikiki.
The UH research organization blamed the weak Japanese economy and a decrease in Hawaii flights.
Japan Airlines is down to one Tokyo-Honolulu flight a day, and won't add flights until mid-July, when JAL will return to three a day.
The state discussed the new targets with the tourism industry on May 2, said Frank Haas, tourism marketing director of the authority.
The targets appear upbeat, though not as high as they were before the war with Iraq.
Leading up to the war, the authority had a target of 10 percent growth in Japanese arrivals this year. The target has been changed to growth of 1.3 percent. The information is not final and is still being circulated within the industry, Haas noted.
The authority also has a new target of attracting 6.61 million total visitors this year, which would be a 3.5 percent increase from 6.39 million who are estimated to have come last year. The authority's previous target was for Hawaii to receive 6.73 million visitors this year.
The record was set in 2000, with 6.95 million visitor arrivals.
Arrivals from the U.S. West are targeted to grow 3.3 percent this year, while the U.S. East is targeted to grow 4.1 percent.
Haas said visitor officials have reason to be optimistic about Japanese tourism in the second half of the year, particularly in the fall.
Travel to SARS-affected countries has fallen off, and Japan tour wholesalers are not promoting travel to other places, he said.
Singapore visitor arrivals were down 75 percent year-over-year in the first week of May.
The Hawaii Tourism Authority has a meeting next week with Japan Airlines about a possible marketing initiative, Haas said.
