[ OUR OPINION ]
TWO wars and a mysterious virus have taken their toll on Hawaii's tourism industry, but a glimmer of light can be seen at the end of the tunnel. One war is nearing an end, the other has faded in the national psyche and the worst of the virus is believed to be over. The time is fast approaching for state and industry officials to lure vacationers back to Hawaii. Get ready to energize
Hawaii tourism
THE ISSUE State and travel industry officials are poised to launch marketing efforts to revive tourism at the most advantageous time.
Hawaii's economy had begun recovering from the dismal 1990s when the attacks of 9/11 staggered the nation. Tourism slowly improved after a few months until the uncertainty about war in Iraq caused travelers to pause again. The Iraq conflict supplanted the war against terrorism in many people's minds, although some consider the two wars to be one and the same. The end of the Iraq war may ease people's nervousness about traveling, but the travel industry is not banking on it.
"We are not planning or counting on any bounce back," says Douglas A. Hacker, executive vice president of United Airlines. "In this kind of environment, you can't have a forecast. Our crystal ball remains pretty cloudy. We're kind of getting used to that. Our theme is, 'Let's work against a pretty ugly scenario.'"
The ugliness is reflected in comments received from potential Japanese tourists in an Internet survey conducted between March 28 and April 8 by Honolulu's PacRim Marketing Group Inc. "I had planned to go to a wedding (in the islands), but Hawaii is also America," one respondent wrote. "I am in no mood to celebrate or drink toasts while there is a war going on." Obviously, that would-be visitor regards the Iraq conflict, but not the battle against terrorism, as war.
Indeed, Japanese arrivals to Hawaii since the Iraq war began were down 27 percent from the same period last year because of people delaying their previously booked trips. Local tourism companies expect Japanese business to be down as much as 40 percent in April and May but hope for a quick recovery in June.
The lasting effect of SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, is uncertain. The pneumonia-like illness has caused a crisis for the tourism industry in Asia. The Hong Kong and Singapore tourism boards have halted all marketing promotions, and Australia redirected advertising spending from SARS-afflicted countries to Japan and New Zealand, according to The Straits Times of Singapore.
United's Hacker says the SARS outbreak has had the same effect on United's Pacific billings as the Iraq war has had on trans- Atlantic traffic. E. Han Kim, professor of finance at the University of Michigan Business schools, agrees: "SARS is hurting some airlines just as much as the war and, unfortunately, you can't bomb SARS."
You can contain it, though, and Dr. Guenael Rodier of the World Health Organization says most countries are beginning to do so. "The peak in most places is behind us," he says. If true, the nadir of the tourism slump may have passed.
